Debasis Mohapatra
Bengaluru, 8 Mar 2026
Both Nifty 50 and Sensex are in pressure as Middle East conflict shows no signs of an end. Market is likely to react to all the news flow coming from Middle East this week with an worrying eye on crude oil prices, which is on an upward trend since the beginning of the Iran versus Israel-US war.
Last week, these factors drove the market downward. Nifty 50 lost 1.76% to settle at 24,450.45, while Sensex was down 1.37% to end last Friday’s trade at 78,918.90. This week (9th March to 13th March), these events and data points are likely to shape the market movement:
- Middle East conflict: All eyes will be on the Middle East conflict with major focus on movement of goods through Straight of Hormuz. Moreover, restarting of Qatar’s LNG exports hub, production and export status of crude oil from major oil economies will drive the investors’ sentiment. Investors will also look at possibility of a backchannel engagement between US and Iran this week
- Crude Oil price movement: India is a major importer of crude oil and the current spike is likely to deteriorate the trade deficit position of Indian economy. If portion of the price rise is passed on to consumers, then it can push inflation, which remains benign. Brent crude prices have touched $87 per barrel with many analysts predicting a $100 per barrel price point if the war lingers.
- Nifty Bank: After a stellar run, Nifty Bank- the index representing financial institutions- came under pressure last week. The key index lost close to 4% last week with heavyweights like HDFC Bank, ICICI Bank and SBI among others facing selling pressure. The buying interest among DIIs & FIIs will determine the price movement in the broad gauges to a large extent.
- Rupee vs Dollar: Rupee after a brief stint of stability has again facing selling pressure with RBI interventions reported by some news outlets. Oil price, & FII selling will be key factors to watch for gauging the rupee movement against dollar. Any weakness in rupee may create selling pressure in the index.
