DBT Bureau
Pune, 5 Jan 2026
Kedia Advisory, in its latest release, noted mixed trends across commodities, with gold easing slightly, silver gaining on strong fundamentals, and crude oil slipping due to surplus supply concerns.
Gold prices edged marginally lower by 0.03% to settle at ₹135,761, weighed by late profit booking after a strong rally driven by expectations of further US interest rate cuts in 2026 and sustained safe-haven demand. The metal gained nearly 65% last year, with momentum accelerating after the US administration rolled out broad global tariffs from late April. Despite the minor correction, gold continues to draw solid support from elevated geopolitical risks, dovish rate expectations, aggressive central bank buying, and steady inflows into gold-backed ETFs. Minutes from the December FOMC meeting showed growing openness among policymakers toward monetary easing if inflation continues to cool, though divisions persist over the timing and scale of rate cuts. Geopolitical tensions remain supportive, with renewed Russia–Ukraine attacks and tighter US enforcement on Venezuela’s oil trade sustaining risk aversion. Physical demand improved as prices corrected from record highs, with gold trading at premiums in India and China for the first time in nearly two months. China’s net gold imports via Hong Kong more than doubled month-on-month in November, while the People’s Bank of China extended its gold buying streak for a thirteenth consecutive month. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 1.12% to 15,577 alongside a ₹43 price decline. Gold has immediate support at ₹135,140, with further downside seen near ₹134,525. Resistance is placed at ₹136,735, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward ₹137,715.
Market analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹134525- ₹137715.
- Gold pared gains on late profit booking after prices climbed bolstered by the prospect of further US interest rate cuts.
- The persistent Israel-Iran conflict and the ongoing US-Venezuela tensions could boost the Gold price.
- Fed’s minutes revealed increasing openness among policymakers toward monetary easing if inflation continues to cool.
Silver prices extended gains, settling 0.19% higher at ₹236,316, supported by its designation as a critical mineral in the US, structurally tight supply, low inventories, and rising industrial as well as investment demand. Expectations of easier monetary policy also underpinned sentiment, with markets pricing in two additional US interest rate cuts in 2026. Uncertainty around the potential nomination of a new Federal Reserve chair when Jerome Powell’s term ends in May has added to expectations of a more dovish policy stance. Geopolitical tensions, including renewed Russia–Ukraine hostilities and persistent US–Venezuela frictions, further reinforced silver’s safe-haven appeal. On the supply side, the global silver market faces fresh risks after Chinese stockpiles fell to their lowest levels in a decade. Inventories linked to the Shanghai Futures Exchange have dropped to the lowest since 2015, following record Chinese exports exceeding 660 tonnes in October that were shipped largely to London to ease a market squeeze. Despite this, liquidity conditions remain tight in London, with elevated borrowing costs. LBMA data showed silver holdings in London vaults rose 3.5% month-on-month in November, reflecting recent inflows but still historically tight conditions. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising sharply by 4.3% to 13,738 alongside a ₹443 price increase. Silver has immediate support at ₹232,540, with further downside risk toward ₹228,770. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹242,540, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward ₹248,770.
Market analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹228770- ₹248770.
- Silver gains amid its designation as a critical US mineral, tight supply, low stockpiles, and rising industrial and investment demand.
- Fed Governor Stephen Miran voted against the action in favor of a jumbo rate cut.
- Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee and Kansas City’s Jeff Schmid dissented in favor of leaving rates unchanged.
Crude oil prices declined by 1.3% to settle at ₹5,155, as expectations of a persistent global supply surplus outweighed geopolitical risks in several OPEC+ producing nations. While supply disruptions in Venezuela intensified due to a partial US blockade forcing well shut-ins, the broader market remained pressured by rising production and ample inventories. Supply of the five North Sea crude grades underpinning dated Brent is set to increase to about 575,000 bpd in February from 565,000 bpd in January, adding to near-term supply availability. OPEC+ is widely expected to reaffirm its pause on further production increases at its upcoming meeting, reflecting mounting evidence of oversupply. Despite this, US output continues to surge, with October production hitting a record 13.87 million bpd. Output gains were broad-based, led by New Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. Although US crude inventories posted a larger-than-expected draw of 1.93 million barrels in the latest week, overall commercial stocks remain comfortably above historical averages at 423 million barrels. The IEA marginally narrowed its 2026 surplus outlook by lifting demand growth forecasts and trimming supply growth, while OPEC maintained its expectations for steady demand growth next year. However, near-term balances remain loose. From a technical perspective, the market is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 4.6% to 19,084 alongside a ₹68 price decline. Crude oil has immediate support at ₹5,106, with further downside seen near ₹5,056. Resistance is placed at ₹5,224, and a move above this level could open the path toward ₹5,292.
Market analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹5056- ₹5292.
- Crude oil dropped as expectations for a supply surplus offset geopolitical risks to production in several OPEC+ nations.
- US crude oil inventories, fell by 1.934 million barrels, the largest weekly drop since mid-November.
- Gasoline stocks rose sharply by 5.845 million barrels, far exceeding forecasts of 1.9 million
(Disclaimer: This information is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before taking positions in stocks)
