DBT Bureau
Pune, 15 March 2026
The 2026/27 U.S. soybean outlook reflects higher production, stronger crush demand, increased exports, and lower ending stocks compared to the previous marketing year. U.S. soybean production is projected at 4.435 billion bushels due to improved yields and higher harvested area. Rising soybean oil demand from the biofuel sector, supported by EPA Renewable Volume Obligations, is expected to significantly boost crush activity. U.S. soybean exports are forecast to recover after weaker shipments in 2025/26, while ending stocks decline to 310 million bushels. Globally, oilseed production and crush are expected to increase, led by higher soybean output in Brazil, the United States, and Argentina.
Key Highlights
- U.S. soybean production is projected to rise to 4.435 billion bushels in 2026/27.
- Soybean crush is expected to hit a record 2.750 billion bushels on strong biofuel demand.
- U.S. soybean exports are forecast higher at 1.630 billion bushels.
- Soybean oil prices are projected to increase to 70 cents per pound.
- Global oilseed production is expected to rise by 19.6 million tons year-on-year.
Soybean prices remained firm as the 2026/27 outlook pointed toward strong demand growth despite higher production estimates in the United States and globally. Market sentiment improved mainly due to rising crush demand, expanding biofuel consumption, and lower projected U.S. ending stocks.
The U.S. soybean crop for 2026/27 is projected at 4.435 billion bushels, up 173 million bushels from the previous year on higher harvested area and trend yields. Total U.S. oilseed production is estimated at 130.4 million tons, supported by increased soybean, rapeseed, and sunflowerseed output.
A major supportive factor for soybean prices is the sharp rise in crush demand. U.S. soybean crush is forecast at a record 2.750 billion bushels, driven by favorable processing margins and strong soybean oil demand from the biofuel industry. EPA Renewable Volume Obligations for 2026 and 2027 are expected to significantly boost soybean oil consumption for biofuel production, with usage projected at 17.8 billion pounds.
U.S. soybean exports are expected to recover to 1.630 billion bushels after tariff-related disruptions impacted shipments to China during 2025/26. However, growing South American supplies may continue to limit the long-term expansion of the U.S. share in global soybean trade.
Globally, oilseed production is forecast to increase to 718.1 million tons, mainly led by higher soybean production in Brazil, the United States, and Argentina. Rising global crush demand and increasing vegetable oil trade, especially sunflowerseed and canola oil, are also expected to support the broader oilseed complex.
Strong biofuel demand, rising soybean crush, and tightening U.S. stocks are expected to keep soybean prices supported despite higher global production during 2026/27.
Source: Kedia Advisory
