DBT Bureau

Pune, 13 Oct 2025

Gold prices rose by 0.72% to settle at 1,21,364, supported by global economic uncertainty and heightened expectations of further U.S. interest rate cuts. With the U.S. government shutdown extending into its third week and political instability in France following the resignation of PM Lecornu, safe-haven demand for gold strengthened. Comments from Fed officials suggested a cautious approach toward additional rate cuts, reinforcing market expectations of a 25 bps reduction at the upcoming October 29 FOMC meeting, with a 94% probability. Goldman Sachs raised its 2026 gold price forecast from $4,300 to $4,900, citing sustained inflows into gold ETFs and strong central bank purchases. Physical demand in India remained resilient despite record prices, with dealers offering premiums up to $15 per ounce ahead of key festive demand. In contrast, China’s post-holiday buying was subdued, with discounts ranging between $48–$60 per ounce, while Hong Kong and Singapore saw mixed premiums and discounts amid profit-booking. Swiss customs data showed gold exports to China surged 254% in August to 35 tonnes, the highest since May 2024, while shipments to India also rose, underscoring strong Asian demand. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased slightly by 0.04% to 16,589, while prices gained 871. Support is seen at 1,20,165, and a break below could test 1,18,965, whereas resistance is likely at 1,22,425, with potential upside toward 1,23,485 if momentum continues.

Market analysis:

Gold trading range for the day is 118965-123485.

Gold gains driven by global economic uncertainty, and growing expectations of further US interest rate cuts.

Fed’s Barr said that he does not think that there is a generalized spillover of tariffs onto services inflation.

Goldman Sachs revised its 2026 forecast for Gold prices from $4,300 to $4,900, citing strong flows into Gold ETFs and central bank demand.

Source: Kedia Research