DBT Bureau
Pune, 8 Dec 2025
Gold prices edged higher by 0.3% to ₹130,462 as a series of soft US economic indicators strengthened expectations of an imminent Federal Reserve rate cut. The World Gold Council’s latest data also added support, revealing that global central banks accelerated their purchases, adding a net 53 tonnes in October—the strongest buying since November 2024. Year-to-date acquisitions now stand at 254 tonnes, led by Poland and Brazil, while China extended its buying streak to 12 consecutive months. Meanwhile, the US PCE index rose 0.3% in September, in line with forecasts, while personal spending and income also increased modestly, signalling cooling but resilient economic activity. Physical demand, however, showed signs of strain due to elevated prices. Indian gold demand dipped as local prices neared record highs, prompting retailers to offer discounts of up to $22 per ounce. China, too, saw uneven demand as bullion traded between discounts and slight premiums amid volatility and new VAT rules that raised costs. Other Asian hubs such as Singapore and Hong Kong reported mixed premiums, while Japan remained largely steady. Globally, gold demand in Q3 surged 3% to a record 1,313 tonnes, driven by a 17% rise in bar and coin purchases and a sharp 134% jump in ETF inflows, offsetting weak jewellery demand. Technically, gold is witnessing fresh buying, with open interest up 0.19% to 13,050. Immediate support lies at ₹129,660 and then ₹128,860, while resistance is seen at ₹131,400, above which prices may test ₹132,340.
Market Analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹128860- ₹132340.
- Gold settled with gains as a string of US data reinforced the case for an imminent Fed cut. Data
- The US PCE price index rose 0.3% month-over-month in September 2025, the same as in August and in line with expectations.
- Kevin Hassett could succeed Fed Chair Powell in May have also fueled speculation of a shift toward more aggressive easing.
Silver prices surged 2.96% to ₹183,408 as tightening global supply and rising expectations of deeper US Federal Reserve rate cuts boosted sentiment. Investor appetite strengthened further, with silver-backed ETFs adding nearly 200 tons—pushing total holdings to their highest level since 2022. A record shipment of silver into London last month helped ease a local market squeeze but simultaneously tightened supplies in other regions. Inventories at the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell to their lowest levels in a decade, while Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes dropped to a nine-year low. Chinese exports spiked to an unprecedented 660 tons in October, accelerating stock depletion at home and reshaping global supply flows. Soft US labor market data reinforced bets of a rate cut next week, with markets pricing in multiple additional reductions next year. Political speculation also added volatility, with investors weighing the possibility of Kevin Hassett replacing Fed Chair Jerome Powell—an outcome markets view as supportive for more aggressive monetary easing. Despite the record inflow of 1,674 tons into London vaults, borrowing costs in the OTC market remain historically elevated. US Comex stocks also saw a massive outflow of 1,568 tons since early October, though inventories remain significantly higher year-on-year amid uncertainty around US tariffs. Technically, silver is witnessing short covering, reflected in a 4.6% drop in open interest to 13,957. Immediate support lies at ₹179,995 and then ₹176,580. Resistance is placed at ₹186,030, and a breakout above this level could open the door for a move toward ₹188,650.
Market Analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹176580- ₹188650.
- Silver rallied amid tightening supply and expectations of deeper US Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- Silver-backed ETFs added about 200 tons, lifting total holdings to the highest level since 2022 amid robust demand.
- A record volume of silver also moved into London last month, tightening supplies in other hubs.
Crude oil yesterday settled higher by 0.82% at ₹5427 as geopolitical tensions remained elevated, with the Russia-Ukraine war and the U.S.–Venezuela standoff showing no signs of resolution. Sentiment was influenced by Saudi Arabia reducing its January Arab Light crude prices for Asia to their lowest level in five years, while Canadian crude also weakened sharply. Markets remained watchful after President Donald Trump hinted at imminent action against Venezuela, a move that could threaten the country’s 1.1 million bpd output. Additional support came from stalled U.S. diplomatic efforts in Moscow and continued Ukrainian attacks on Russian energy assets. Fundamentals reflected a mixed global outlook. Fitch Ratings lowered its 2025-2027 oil price assumptions amid oversupply concerns, while OPEC+ kept output levels unchanged for Q1 2026, signaling caution over a looming supply glut. The group also approved a mechanism to assess members’ maximum capacity for post-2027 baseline setting. Meanwhile, U.S. production hit a record 13.84 million bpd in September, with strong gains in New Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico. Inventories showed a mild build of 0.574 million barrels last week, while gasoline stocks jumped sharply by 4.52 million barrels. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 3.06% to 13,607 as prices gained 44 points. Crude oil finds immediate support at ₹5367, with further downside risk toward ₹5306. Resistance is placed at ₹5469, and a breakout above this level may open the path toward ₹5510.
Market Analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹5306- ₹5510.
- Crude oil edges up amid unresolved Russia-Ukraine tension and U.S.-Venezuela standoff.
- Saudi Arabia lowering its January Arab light crude price for Asia to its lowest level in five years.
- Traders continued to watch for a possible US move in Venezuela after President Trump signaled imminent action against the oil giant.
