DBT Bureau
Pune, 28 Oct 2025
Crude oil on 27th Oct settled slightly higher by 0.20% at 5,438 amid renewed optimism over a potential trade agreement framework between the U.S. and China. U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent confirmed that both sides had outlined a “substantial framework” to avoid the imposition of 100% U.S. tariffs and secure China’s deferment of rare-earth export controls. This development bolstered global sentiment, lending mild support to oil prices. Meanwhile, Iraq indicated ongoing negotiations regarding its production quota within its 5.5 million barrels per day capacity, as OPEC+ continues adjusting output levels to regain market share. On the supply front, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its 2025 global oil supply forecast following OPEC+ output increases but trimmed demand growth projections due to a weaker economic outlook. The IEA expects global oil demand to rise by around 700,000 barrels per day both this year and next. U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed crude inventories rose by 3.5 million barrels to 423.8 million barrels, while gasoline and distillate stocks fell by 0.27 and 4.5 million barrels, respectively, reflecting mixed fundamentals. Refinery runs dropped by 1.2 million barrels per day, with utilization falling to 85.7%. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 0.26% to 14,132 while prices edged higher by 11. Crude oil finds support at 5,374 and 5,311, while resistance is expected near 5,494 and 5,551. A breakout above these levels could indicate further bullish momentum ahead.
Market Analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5311-5551.
- Crude oil gained amid optimism over a trade deal framework between the U.S. and China.
- Support for prices came from continued concerns over Russian supply, after the US imposed new sanctions targeting Rosneft and Lukoil.
- IEA noted that the oil market is expected to remain in surplus, with production from the so-called “American quintet”, outpacing demand growth.
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
