DBT Bureau
Pune, 24 Nov 2025
Crude oil prices retreated, settling 1.25% lower at ₹5197, pressured by renewed diplomatic efforts between the United States and Ukraine that raised hopes of a peace framework, potentially unlocking additional global supply. Comments from Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy about working with Washington on an end-war plan further weighed on sentiment. Expectations of prolonged monetary policy uncertainty also curbed risk appetite. Adding to the bearish tone, Goldman Sachs projected that oil prices are likely to trend lower through 2026 amid a strong supply wave, though it noted that Brent could rebound above $70 in 2026–27 if Russian output declines more sharply. On the supply front, OPEC+ kept its December output increase unchanged at 137,000 bpd, with a pause planned for Q1 next year. US inventory data showed a mixed picture: crude stocks rose 6.4 million barrels in the week to November 7, while a later report indicated a sharp 3.426-million-barrel decline for the week ending November 14. Cushing hub stocks fell modestly, while gasoline inventories increased 2.327 million barrels and distillates rose slightly. The EIA raised its US production forecast, expecting output to average a record 13.59 million bpd this year before easing marginally next year. Globally, supply is projected at 106 million bpd, exceeding consumption of 104.1 million bpd. Technically, crude oil is under fresh selling pressure, with open interest up 6.85%. Support lies at ₹5139, below which ₹5082 may be tested, while resistance is at ₹5260, with a breakout opening ₹5324.
Market Analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹5082 – ₹5324.
- Crude oil dropped as the United States pushed for a Russia-Ukraine peace deal that could swell global supply.
- Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said he would work with Washington on a plan to end the war.
- EIA reported a larger-than-expected rise in U.S. crude stocks last week
Natural gas prices climbed 3.85% to ₹415, supported by a shift toward colder weather forecasts heading into early December. After several sessions of warmer revisions, the latest European weather model added notable heating demand for late November and early December, sparking fresh buying interest. Weather remains the dominant winter driver, with some long-range outlooks still hinting at a colder-than-normal season. NatGasWeather highlighted that models had previously shed early-December demand, but the midday update partially reversed those losses. Additional support comes from expectations of the season’s first storage withdrawal following last week’s cold snap. On the supply side, US production remains elevated. Lower-48 output is averaging 109.2 bcfd in November, near record highs and above October levels, keeping inventories roughly 4% above normal. LNG feedgas demand is robust as well, averaging 18 bcfd so far this month compared with a record 16.7 bcfd in October. The EIA reported a 14 bcf storage withdrawal for the week ended November 14, in line with expectations and contrasting with a build during the same week last year. Looking ahead, the EIA projects both US natural gas output and demand to rise to record highs in 2025. Dry gas production is forecast to reach 107.1 bcfd next year, while consumption is expected at 91.6 bcfd. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest plunging 44.65%. Support lies at ₹400.6, below which ₹386.2 may be tested. Resistance stands at ₹424.2, and a break above could take prices toward ₹433.4.
Market Analysis:
- Naturalgas trading range for the day is ₹386.2- ₹433.4.
- Natural gas climbed as some forecasts shifted colder heading into early December.
- After several days of warmer revisions, the latest European model added heating demand for late November and early December, helping spark buying.
- Support also comes from expectations of the first storage withdrawal of the season after last week’s cold snap.
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
