DBT Bureau
Pune, 21 Nov 2025
China’s latest trade data paints a mixed picture for global commodity markets, with weakening demand for key industrial metals but a sharp rise in refined zinc exports. As global economic uncertainty intensifies—from rising U.S. labor strength to evolving oil supply forecasts—China’s shifting import-export trends are reshaping sentiment across metals, energy, and currency markets.
- Spot gold slipped after a stronger-than-expected U.S. jobs report bolstered expectations that the Federal Reserve will hold off on cutting interest rates at its December meeting.
- The US nonfarm payrolls report for September, that was delayed due to the government shutdown, showed an increase of 119,000 jobs, more than the projected gain of 50,000. Meanwhile, Unemployment rate rose to 4.4%.
- The FOMC minutes from the late October policy meeting revealed that central bankers broadly supported cutting rates. Fed justified its recent rate cuts by citing weakening labor market momentum and the need to return to a more neutral policy stance.
- China’s exports declined by 1.1% in October, as outbound shipments fell following months of front-loading orders to avoid U.S. tariffs. Meanwhile, imports posted a modest increase of 1% during the same period.
- Crude oil prices dropped for a third straight session as U.S.’ push towards a Russia-Ukraine peace deal raised prospects of increased global supply.
- The OPEC monthly report shows that the global oil market is expected to see a modest surplus in 2026, driven by OPEC+ unwind and higher production from other suppliers, a notable shift from earlier projections of a deficit.
- Meanwhile, the forecasts from International Energy Agency imply that supply could exceed demand by about 4 million bpd in 2026, equal to almost 4% of global demand.
- China’s copper imports declined in October, as high prices discouraged consumers from restocking the metal, which is widely used in power and construction sectors. Imports fell to 438,000 metric tonnes, down 9.7% from 485,000 tons in the previous month.
- China’s refined zinc exports jumped in October as domestic smelters sought overseas markets amid depleting LME stock levels and weak local demand. Shipments totaled 8,519 metric tonnes, up 243.8% from September’s 2,478 tons and far above the 217 tonnes recorded a year earlier.
