DBT Bureau
Pune, 20 April 2026
Base metals traded on a mixed note, with copper supported by strong demand indicators and supply concerns, while zinc edged lower due to profit booking and aluminium declined sharply amid an improving supply outlook and easing geopolitical tensions, according to Kedia Advisory.
Copper prices edged slightly higher, gaining 0.33% to settle at ₹1272.9, supported by improving sentiment around global trade flows. The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz and assurances from Iran that commercial vessels will not be targeted have eased supply chain concerns, lowered energy costs, and lifted the outlook for manufacturing activity—factors that tend to support industrial metals like copper. Additional support came from supply-side concerns, particularly around sulphur shortages, a key input in copper processing, as disruptions in the Middle East continue to impact availability. Demand signals from China also remain encouraging, with the Yangshan copper premium surging to $74 per ton—up 270% since late January—highlighting strong import appetite. At the same time, inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange dropped nearly 10%, indicating tightening near-term supply. However, mixed production trends globally and declining Chinese imports suggest a more balanced demand picture. Looking ahead, market expectations remain divided. While Citi sees short-term strength, it anticipates prices may ease later in 2026. Goldman Sachs, on the other hand, projects a larger global surplus next year, which could weigh on prices. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering, with open interest falling 6.76% while prices moved higher. Immediate support is seen at ₹1260.6, with further downside towards ₹1248.1. On the upside, resistance is placed at ₹1283.9, and a breakout above this level could lead to a move towards ₹1294.7.
Zinc prices slipped slightly by 0.34% to settle at ₹339.1, mainly due to profit booking after recent gains. That said, downside remained limited as improving sentiment around the Strait of Hormuz—remaining open during the ceasefire—helped ease supply concerns and supported industrial activity. China’s factory sector returning to expansion also lifted demand expectations for base metals, offering some cushion at lower levels. On the supply side, signals are mixed. While low inventories, mine closures, and delays continue to provide underlying support, rising production is starting to weigh on the market. The restart of Boliden’s Tara mine and ramp-up at Ivanhoe’s Kipushi project are expected to keep the market in a small surplus. Data also showed global zinc shifted to a surplus of 9,200 tons in January. Meanwhile, Peru’s zinc output showed strong yearly growth despite a monthly decline, and Japan’s Mitsui plans to increase refined production by 3.2% in the upcoming fiscal period. Macro indicators add another layer of complexity. China’s central bank maintains a loose policy stance, while rising factory-gate prices signal increasing cost pressures. However, concerns about the broader economic impact of geopolitical tensions continue to weigh on sentiment. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 2.54% alongside the price decline. Immediate support is seen at ₹336.7, with further downside towards ₹334.4. On the upside, resistance is placed at ₹342.6, and a move above this could push prices towards ₹346.2.
Aluminium prices declined sharply by 2.52% to settle at ₹363.45, as easing geopolitical tensions and the resumption of vessel movement through the Strait of Hormuz improved supply expectations. Iran’s confirmation that commercial shipping has resumed helped calm fears of prolonged disruption, especially from key Gulf producers like the UAE, Qatar, and Bahrain, which together account for a significant share of global output. Lower energy prices also added pressure, as they improve smelter margins in Asia and Europe. That said, the broader supply picture remains tight. Some Middle East facilities are still dealing with damage, and full production recovery could take time. Earlier disruptions had already created supply concerns, reflected in higher premiums and falling inventories. Stocks at major Japanese ports dropped 7.4%, while regional buyers agreed to the highest premiums in over a decade, highlighting continued tightness in physical markets. Globally, demand trends remain stable. China’s aluminium imports rose 6.9% in March, while production also increased, suggesting steady consumption despite higher prices. Meanwhile, industry projections continue to point toward a supply deficit in 2026 due to earlier disruptions. From a technical standpoint, the market is seeing long liquidation, with open interest falling 17.12% alongside the price decline. Immediate support is placed at ₹351.6, with further downside towards ₹339.8. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹374.1, and a move above this could push prices towards ₹384.8.
(This information is for educational purposes only. Please consult your financial advisor before investing in stocks)
