DBT Bureau
Pune, 18 Nov 2025
Aluminium prices declined 1.35% to ₹266.85, pressured by weak macro signals from China and fading hopes of a U.S. Fed rate cut. Although China’s primary aluminium output in October stood at 3.8 million tonnes, up 0.4% year-on-year, production dropped 9% from September, indicating tightening supply conditions. Downside remained limited as Chinese smelters are approaching government-imposed capacity limits, raising concerns of constrained output in the months ahead. China’s latest economic data added demand pressure, with industrial output growing only 4.9% and retail sales rising 2.9%, both the slowest in over a year. New home prices fell 0.5% month-on-month, and new bank loans slumped sharply, pointing to weak credit demand and ongoing property market stress. Despite this softness, aluminium found support from ongoing supply-side disruptions globally. Smelter outages in Iceland, refinery shutdowns by Alcoa in Australia, and curtailments at Century Aluminium tightened the supply outlook. Physical market tightness was also reflected in rising premiums, with the European aluminium premium climbing to $328, nearly double levels seen in June. Meanwhile, backed by expectations of tighter supply, fund inflows into LME aluminium have surged. Banks remained divided: Goldman Sachs lowered its long-term outlook, while ANZ raised its short-term target to $2,900 per tonne amid improving global manufacturing demand. Technically, aluminium remains under long liquidation, with open interest falling 4.94% to 2,403. Support lies at ₹265.5, with further downside toward ₹264, while resistance is seen at ₹269.6, and a breakout may lift prices toward ₹272.2.
Market Analysis:
- Aluminium trading range for the day is ₹264- ₹272.2.
- Aluminium dropped as primary aluminium output in October reached 3.8mt (+0.4% year-on-year).
- China’s economy cooled more than expected in October.
- Record-low investment and slower industrial growth compounded already weak consumer demand.
Source: Kedia Research
