DBT Bureau
Pune, 13 July 2026
U.S. rice prices are expected to remain supported in 2026/27 as lower planted acreage significantly reduces production, tightening domestic supplies and cutting ending stocks. Farmers in the Delta shifted to alternative crops due to weak rice prices, leading to a sharp decline in output. Imports are projected to increase to offset part of the supply shortfall, while domestic consumption and exports have been revised lower. Globally, rice supplies remain ample because of higher beginning stocks, particularly in India and China, despite reduced production. Record global consumption and slightly lower trade are expected, with India continuing to maintain exceptionally large rice inventories.
Key Highlights
- U.S. rice production is projected to decline nearly 13% due to lower planted acreage.
- Tight domestic supplies are expected to lift U.S. rice prices during 2026/27.
- U.S. rice imports are forecast to increase to partially offset lower production.
- Global rice consumption is projected to reach a record 542.8 million tons.
- India’s abundant rice inventories continue to support comfortable global supplies.
Rice prices are expected to strengthen during the 2026/27 marketing year as the United States faces a significant decline in domestic supplies following a sharp reduction in production. The tighter supply outlook has prompted upward revisions to farm price forecasts, with the all-rice season-average farm price expected to rise to $14.90 per cwt, reflecting stronger market fundamentals.
The improved price outlook is primarily driven by lower U.S. production, which is projected at 153.3 million cwt, nearly 13% below the previous month’s estimate. Reduced planted acreage, particularly across the Delta region, has been the key factor behind the decline as many farmers shifted to alternative crops after unfavorable rice price expectations during planting. As a result, total rice supplies have fallen despite an increase in imports, while domestic consumption and exports have also been revised lower. Ending stocks are expected to decline sharply by 28%, indicating a considerably tighter domestic market.
To partially compensate for reduced production, U.S. rice imports are forecast to increase by 4 million cwt, mainly through higher long-grain imports. However, this increase is insufficient to fully offset the production losses, leaving overall supplies significantly lower than previously expected.
Globally, the rice market presents a contrasting picture. Although world production has been revised lower, total global supplies remain comfortable due to larger beginning stocks, particularly in India, China, and Burma. Global rice consumption is projected to reach a record 542.8 million tons, led by stronger demand in China. Meanwhile, global trade has been slightly reduced, mainly because of lower exports from Cambodia, while India continues to maintain exceptionally large rice inventories that help stabilize overall global availability.
Tighter U.S. supplies are likely to keep rice prices supported, although abundant global inventories, particularly in India, should help limit excessive gains in international markets.
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
