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Commodities outlook: Gold up, oil under pressure

in Commodity
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Commodities outlook: Gold up, oil under pressure
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DBT Bureau

Pune, 9 July 2026

According to a Geojit Investments Limited report, the commodities market traded with mixed cues as precious metals firmed on a softer U.S. dollar, while crude oil remained under pressure amid rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and expectations of higher OPEC+ supply. Industrial metals also stayed in focus, with copper supported by a widening global supply deficit, aluminium inventories dropping to multi-year lows, and manufacturing data from China and the U.S. shaping demand expectations.

  • Precious metals edged higher, supported by a softer U.S. dollar, though market sentiment stayed guarded as traders monitored Middle East tensions for clues on inflation and interest rate expectations.
  • The U.S. is reportedly revoking a general license that permitted the sale of Iranian oil following Iran’s attacks on tankers in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The move has strained U.S.-Iran relations, increasing the risk that further retaliatory actions could undermine prospects for a broader diplomatic agreement.
  • The FOMC minutes showed a growing concerns among Federal Reserve officials about persistent inflation. The policymakers noted that inflationary pressures were becoming more widespread, raising the possibility that future interest rate hikes may be needed to keep prices under control.
  • Crude oil prices fell as markets assessed the impact of fresh U.S. strikes on Iran, which could hinder progress on talks to end their war and allow for the full reopening of the key Strait of Hormuz.
  • OPEC+ agreed to further raise oil production targets from August, increasing global supply as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens. During an online meeting, the producer group approved an additional 188000 barrels per day increase in output quotas for August.
  • The global refined copper market showed a 145000 metric tonnes deficit in April, compared with a 23000 metric tonnes surplus in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said.
  • World refined copper output in April was 2.42 million metric tonnes, while consumption was 2.57 million metric tonnes.
  • Total aluminums inventories in LME fell below 300000 tonnes for the first time since 2022.
  • China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in June, signaling an expansion in manufacturing activity, supported by continued growth and improving performance in the high-tech manufacturing sector.
  • The U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI declined to 53.3 in June 2026 from 54.0 in May. The weaker reading signaled a moderation in manufacturing activity and pointed to a slowdown in the sector’s growth momentum.

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