DBT Bureau
Pune, 10 July 2026
Gold prices rebounded sharply, settling 1.11% higher at ₹145,300 as a slightly weaker U.S. dollar supported buying interest, although investors remained cautious amid ongoing geopolitical developments in the Middle East and uncertainty surrounding the Federal Reserve’s policy outlook. The recovery also reflected short covering after recent declines, while market participants continued to evaluate the implications of inflation risks and future interest rate decisions. The minutes from the June 2026 FOMC meeting showed policymakers remained divided over the path of monetary policy. While several officials acknowledged that persistent inflation risks could justify another rate hike, many continued to expect interest rates to finish the year at or slightly below current levels under their base-case outlook. According to the CME FedWatch tool, traders are currently assigning a 63% probability of a September rate hike. Meanwhile, HSBC revised its gold price forecasts lower, citing stronger U.S. dollar expectations and a more hawkish Federal Reserve stance, projecting average gold prices of $4,560 per ounce for 2026 and $4,925 for 2027. Physical demand presented a mixed picture across Asia. Indian demand softened as domestic prices rebounded from recent lows, while buying interest in China improved modestly. The People’s Bank of China continued its long-term reserve diversification strategy, increasing gold holdings for the twentieth consecutive month with a substantial addition of around 15 metric tons during June, marking the largest monthly purchase since October 2023. Gold holdings in London vaults also edged higher to 9,392 tonnes at the end of May. Technically, the market is witnessing short covering as open interest declined 1.49% while prices advanced strongly. Gold finds immediate support near ₹143,795, followed by ₹142,290, whereas resistance is seen at ₹146,110, with a sustained breakout potentially extending gains toward ₹146,920.
Market Analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹142290-₹146920.
- Gold edged higher on a slightly weaker dollar, though investors remained cautious, closely watching developments in ME.
- Fed officials were divided on the future of interest rates and discussed a range of scenarios for the evolution of the economy and policy.
- HSBC lowered its 2026 average gold price forecast to $4,560 per ounce from $4,864 and its 2027 forecast to $4,925 from $5,000.
Silver prices extended gains, settling 1.32% higher at ₹226,377, supported by a weaker U.S. dollar, although advances remained limited as investors closely monitored rising geopolitical tensions in the Middle East and their potential impact on inflation and global monetary policy. Market sentiment remained cautious after fresh U.S. military strikes on Iran triggered retaliatory attacks on Kuwait and Bahrain. However, comments from President Donald Trump indicating that Iran had expressed interest in negotiations helped ease fears of a broader regional conflict. The Federal Reserve’s latest meeting minutes highlighted continued concern over inflation, with several policymakers suggesting that another interest rate hike could become necessary despite rates being left unchanged at the previous meeting. Markets are currently pricing a 63% probability of a September rate hike. Meanwhile, the International Monetary Fund maintained its 2026 global growth forecast at 3%, reflecting stronger-than-expected resilience of the global economy despite geopolitical tensions and continued support from artificial intelligence-driven investment. The IMF also raised its 2027 global growth forecast to 3.4% while projecting global inflation to rise to 4.7% in 2026 before easing in 2027. Fundamental developments remained mixed for silver. Holdings in London vaults increased 0.6% during May to 27,611 tonnes, indicating stable investment demand. In contrast, India’s silver imports plunged sharply in May following tighter import restrictions and higher import duties aimed at reducing precious metal imports and easing pressure on foreign exchange reserves after record import levels during the previous financial year. Technically, silver remains under fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 3.25% alongside higher prices. Immediate support is placed at ₹222,690, followed by ₹219,000, while resistance is seen at ₹228,880. A sustained move above this level could open the way for further gains toward ₹231,380.
Market Analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹219000-₹231380.
- Silver rose supported by a softer dollar, though gains were capped as investors remained focused on escalating tensions in ME.
- Fed’s minutes showed growing concern over inflation, with several policymakers seeing a case for a rate hike.
- Global headline inflation is now expected to reach 4.7% in 2026, up from 4.1% in 2025, before easing to 3.9% in 2027 – IMF
Crude oil prices declined 3.1% to settle at ₹6,854 as traders booked profits after the recent rally driven by escalating geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. Despite the correction, market sentiment remained highly sensitive to developments surrounding the renewed conflict between the United States and Iran. The U.S. military confirmed a second consecutive day of strikes on Iranian targets, while Iran retaliated by targeting U.S. military bases in the region. President Donald Trump declared that the ceasefire had effectively ended and warned of additional military action, including a potential blockade and possible strikes on Iran’s Kharg Island export terminal, keeping concerns over global oil supply disruptions firmly in focus. Shipping activity through the Strait of Hormuz remained severely restricted, with tanker traffic nearly at a standstill amid heightened security risks. The disruption continued to raise concerns over global crude supplies despite HSBC lowering its Brent crude price forecast to $80 per barrel for 2026 and $65 per barrel for 2027, based on expectations that Gulf oil exports will gradually normalize by the end of September. U.S. inventory data presented a mixed outlook. Crude oil inventories declined by 3.775 million barrels, although the draw was smaller than market expectations. Gasoline inventories also fell, indicating healthy fuel demand, while distillate inventories increased unexpectedly. Crude stocks at Cushing rose for the first time in ten weeks, refinery utilization improved, and net crude imports increased. Meanwhile, OPEC+ confirmed another production target increase from August, signaling additional supply despite ongoing logistical disruptions in the Gulf. Technically, crude oil is witnessing long liquidation as open interest declined 6.15% alongside lower prices. Immediate support is seen at ₹6,746, followed by ₹6,638, while resistance is placed at ₹7,053. A sustained move above this level could extend gains toward ₹7,252.
Market Analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹6638-₹7252.
- Crude oil dropped on profit booking after prices gained after the US military confirmed it had carried out strikes on Iran.
- US crude oil inventories increased by 2.998 mbls to 411.3 mbls, marking the first rise after ten consecutive weeks of declines.
- Oil tanker traffic through Hormuz at near standstill as attacks strain Iran truce
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Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
