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Commodities outlook: crude surge, copper deficit and China PMI shape market sentiment

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Commodities outlook: crude surge, copper deficit and China PMI shape market sentiment
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DBT Bureau

Pune, 8 July 2026

Commodity markets traded with a mixed but volatile tone as rising geopolitical tensions in the Strait of Hormuz lifted crude oil prices, pressured precious metals, and kept investors focused on supply risks, Fed policy signals, and fresh cues from global industrial demand.

  • Precious metals came under pressure as crude oil prices jumped, following unfavorable comments from U.S. President Donald Trump on the Iran peace agreement that fueled worries over potential supply disruption in the straight of Hormuz and persistent inflationary pressure.
  • The U.S. is reportedly revoking a general license that permitted the sale of Iranian oil following Iran’s attacks on tankers in the strategic Strait of Hormuz. The move has strained U.S.-Iran relations, increasing the risk that further retaliatory actions could undermine prospects for a broader diplomatic agreement.
  • The U.S. dollar strengthened against a basket of major currencies as investors awaited the release of the Federal Reserve’s June meeting minutes later in the day for fresh policy signals.
  • The U.S. labor market showed signs of cooling in June, as Non-Farm Payrolls rose by only 57000 jobs and the unemployment rate declined to 4.2%.
  • Crude oil prices surged as reports of a potential U.S. response to attacks on vessels near the Strait of Hormuz rekindled fears of supply disruptions in the region.
  • OPEC+ agreed to further raise oil production targets from August, increasing global supply as the Strait of Hormuz gradually reopens. During an online meeting, the producer group approved an additional 188000 barrels per day increase in output quotas for August.
  • The global refined copper market showed a 145000 metric tonnes deficit in April, compared with a 23000 metric tonnes surplus in March, the International Copper Study Group (ICSG) said.
  • World refined copper output in April was 2.42 million metric tonnes, while consumption was 2.57 million metric tonnes.
  • Total aluminums inventories in LME fell below 300000 tonnes for the first time since 2022.
  • China’s Manufacturing Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) rose to 50.3 in June, signaling an expansion in manufacturing activity, supported by continued growth and improving performance in the high-tech manufacturing sector.

Source: Geojit Investments Limited

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