Why China is buying Brazilian coffee? Where coffee prices are headed?

Debasis Mohapatra

Bengaluru, 7 September 2025

China is increasingly buying more Brazilian coffee as the US’ punitive tariff of 50% on Brazil came into effect.
Last month, China approved 183 new Brazilian coffee companies to export products to the Chinese market, the Chinese embassy in Brazil had said. These permits are valid for five years.

Though China buying Brazilian coffee can provide some cushion to its exporters and coffee traders, complete insulation is unlikely. This is because, US is the biggest buyer of Brazilian arabica coffee.

Coffee exports from Brazil to the US has already plunged after tariffs came into effect from August 6, 2025.

In July this year, Brazil exported 450,000 bags of coffee to the US. After policy took effect, this export volume dropped to about 250,000 bags.

According to the Brazilian Coffee Exporters Association, Brazil’s coffee exports to the United States declined by 55.24% compared to the same period last year.

Now, the Brazilian coffee exporters are scouting for new markets including China, Japan and South Korea among others.

Prices stay elevated:

Coffee Price (Futures)- September 3, 2025

ICE- New York- Arabica Price

ICE- Europe- Robusta Price

• The Arabica contract for September delivery has increased by around $100/lb over the last month.
• Robusta contract for September delivery has risen by close to $1,000/tn over the last one month.