DBT Bureau
Pune, 10 April 2026
The 2025/26 soybean outlook reflects mixed fundamentals with stronger domestic demand but weaker export performance. In the United States, higher crushing activity driven by robust soybean meal demand has offset a decline in exports due to strong South American competition. Prices have edged higher, with gains in soybean, meal, and oil values. Globally, higher production led by Brazil is balancing increased crushing demand, while ending stocks have slightly declined. This indicates tightening supply conditions despite ample output, with global demand dynamics supporting oilseed markets in the near term.
Key Highlights
- U.S. soybean crush rises to 2.61 billion bushels
- Exports fall to 1.54 billion bushels on global competition
- Soybean prices increase to $10.30 per bushel
- Brazil production revised higher, leading global supply
- Global ending stocks decline slightly to 124.8 million tons
Soybean markets are exhibiting a mixed trend for the 2025/26 season, with domestic demand strength offsetting export weakness. In the United States, soybean prices have shown moderate improvement, with the season-average price forecast raised to $10.30 per bushel. The upside in prices is largely supported by stronger crushing activity, which has been increased to 2.61 billion bushels due to rising domestic demand for soybean meal. Additionally, soybean meal prices have been raised to $310 per short ton, while soybean oil prices have climbed to 59 cents per pound, reflecting firm demand across product segments.
Supporting the price trend, higher crush margins indicate robust processing demand, which is helping absorb domestic supplies. However, export demand remains a key concern, with U.S. soybean exports reduced to 1.54 billion bushels. This decline is attributed to aggressive shipments from South America, particularly Brazil, which continues to dominate global soybean trade with increased production and competitive pricing.
On the global front, soybean supplies have expanded slightly, driven by higher beginning stocks and increased production in Brazil, Paraguay, and South Africa. Brazil’s output for the previous season has been revised upward to 172.5 million tons, reinforcing its position as the leading global supplier. Despite this, global soybean crushing has increased, particularly in the United States, Brazil, and Algeria, indicating sustained demand for soybean products.
Global ending stocks have declined marginally to 124.8 million tons, mainly due to lower inventories in Argentina, Brazil, and Egypt. This suggests a gradual tightening in global supply despite higher production.
Finally, rising crush demand and firm product prices are supporting soybean markets, but export pressure and global competition may limit upside, keeping the overall outlook balanced to slightly supportive.
