DBT Bureau
Pune, 20 March 2026
Moong prices declined nearly 5% in a month as ample carry-forward stocks and fresh rabi arrivals increased supply pressure. Higher production estimates and NAFED stock releases further capped price upside. However, strong export demand and lower private stocks are gradually tightening the market. Government policies, including MSP support and duty-free pulse imports, are balancing price movements. Globally, rising competition and improved crop outlooks are influencing sentiment, while weather risks like heatwaves and El Niño pose uncertainty for future supply. Overall, the market remains weak in the short term, but underlying fundamentals suggest potential tightening in the medium term.
Key Highlights
- Moong prices fell nearly 5% monthly due to higher arrivals and ample stocks.
- Kharif production rose 11.72% YoY, while rabi output is expected to increase 7%.
- Exports surged 869%, indicating strong global demand and tightening private stocks.
- NAFED stock release and duty-free imports are capping price upside.
- Weather risks and lower sowing may tighten supply in coming months.
Moong prices have declined around 5% over the past month, mainly due to rising supply in domestic markets. Fresh rabi arrivals from key states like Gujarat and Maharashtra have added seasonal pressure, while ample carry-forward stocks have further weighed on prices. Despite this, the downside has remained somewhat limited, supported by strong export demand and gradually tightening private inventories.
On the supply side, production trends remain largely favorable. Kharif moong output is estimated at 19.82 lakh tonnes, marking an 11.72% increase year-on-year, while overall rabi pulses production is projected to rise by 7%. Improved soil moisture from late monsoon rains has also supported yield prospects. At the same time, NAFED has stepped up the disposal of buffer stocks under the Price Support Scheme, with government reserves standing at around 5.40 lakh tonnes, helping stabilize market prices.
Demand dynamics, however, present a mixed picture. Moong exports have surged sharply by nearly 869% to 1.62 lakh tonnes during April–January 2026, reflecting strong global demand. Yet, the government’s decision to extend duty-free imports of yellow peas and tur has limited substitution demand for moong, preventing a sharp price recovery. MSP has been increased to ₹8,768 per quintal, and procurement efforts, including 37,020 tonnes in Telangana, are providing a safety net to farmers.
Globally, competition is intensifying, with China’s mung bean imports rising 109% and improved crop prospects in Australia adding to supply. Meanwhile, domestic sowing has declined slightly, and weather risks such as heatwaves and a potential El Niño event are raising concerns about future production.
Finally, Moong outlook remains bearish in the near to medium term, with prices likely to drift toward 7150–6950 levels, as strong supply, imports, and weak technical structure continue to pressure the market.
