DBT Bureau
Pune, 19 Jan 2026
Gold prices edged lower, settling 0.42% down at ₹142,517, as safe-haven demand eased and expectations of an imminent U.S. Federal Reserve rate cut weakened. Geopolitical risk premiums softened after U.S. President Donald Trump signaled a possible delay in military action against Iran, following Tehran’s assurances regarding protesters and signs of easing internal unrest. At the same time, stronger-than-expected U.S. economic data prompted investors to pare back aggressive easing bets, with markets now largely pricing the first Fed rate cut in July rather than June, keeping near-term yields supportive of the dollar and weighing on bullion. Despite the short-term correction, broader fundamentals remain constructive. Gold holdings in London vaults rose 2.24% month-on-month to 9,106 tonnes, reflecting continued institutional interest. Major banks remain bullish on the medium-term outlook: Commerzbank lifted its 2026 year-end forecast to $4,900/oz, while HSBC and UBS see prices testing $5,000/oz in 2026, citing geopolitical risks, rising debt levels, and structural central-bank demand. Physical demand showed mixed trends. Indian retail buying remained subdued due to elevated prices, with dealers offering discounts of up to $12/oz, while Chinese demand stayed relatively steady ahead of the Lunar New Year. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 2.95%. Gold has support at ₹141,390, below which prices may test ₹140,255. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹143,490, and a breakout could push prices toward ₹144,455.
Silver prices declined sharply, settling 1.31% lower at ₹287,762, as risk premium across commodities eased after the U.S. refrained from imposing tariffs on critical minerals. Earlier fears of potential U.S. import levies had driven an aggressive rally in silver and base metals, with traders front-loading shipments into the U.S. Safe-haven demand also moderated after U.S. President Donald Trump indicated that executions of protesters in Iran had stopped, reducing immediate geopolitical escalation risks. Despite the correction, silver remains supported on a broader weekly basis. The metal continues to benefit from its strategic importance after being added to the U.S. critical minerals list, reflecting its essential role in solar energy, electric vehicles, and advanced electronics. Expectations of eventual U.S. rate cuts also underpin sentiment, although Federal Reserve officials reiterated the need to maintain a restrictive stance until inflation shows clearer signs of cooling. On the fundamental side, silver holdings in London vaults rose 2.3% month-on-month to 27,818 tonnes by end-December 2025, highlighting steady institutional interest. Major banks remain constructive over the medium term, with Commerzbank projecting $95/oz by end-2026. The market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising 5.19% alongside a price decline, indicating bearish positioning. Silver has immediate support at ₹283,585; a break below could test ₹279,405. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹292,405, and a sustained move above this level may open the path toward ₹297,045.
Copper prices settled 1.45% lower at ₹1,289.5, pressured by growing concerns over demand prospects in China following weak macro data and the absence of benchmark interest rate cuts. Sentiment was weighed down as China’s new bank lending in 2025 slumped to a seven-year low, underscoring subdued borrowing appetite amid a prolonged property sector downturn. Adding to near-term pressure, copper inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses rose 18.3% from last week, reaching an eight-year high for this period, with Chinese smelters exporting surplus metal at discounts as importers resist elevated international premiums. However, downside appears limited due to tightening supply conditions outside China. Copper availability in LME registered warehouses fell sharply by 22% to the lowest level in six months, driven by continued stock movements to the U.S. ahead of potential tariff decisions, where premiums remain attractive. On the supply side, Chilean mine disruptions offered support, with Codelco output down 3% year-on-year in November and BHP’s Escondida production falling 12.8%, partially offset by marginal gains at Collahuasi. Looking ahead, expectations of policy support improved after China signaled a broad fiscal and financial package to boost domestic consumption. The market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 3.06% alongside falling prices. Support is seen at ₹1,282.3, with further downside toward ₹1,275. Resistance stands at ₹1,299.6, and a breakout above this could open the path toward ₹1,309.6.
Aluminium prices settled lower by 0.69% at ₹316.5, pressured mainly by a sharp rise in inventories and a stronger U.S. dollar. Stocks in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange surged 29.2% from last Friday, signaling near-term supply comfort and weighing on sentiment. Adding to the pressure, easing concerns over potential U.S. tariffs on aluminium reduced risk premiums, while inventories at three major Japanese ports increased 1.5% month-on-month to 316,800 metric tons by end-December. Despite the decline, downside appears limited due to an underlying global supply-demand imbalance. The global primary aluminium market recorded a deficit of 108,700 tons in October, taking the cumulative shortfall for the first ten months of the year to 955,500 tons, as consumption outpaced production. Investor sentiment also found support from expectations of policy easing in China, with the central bank signaling RRR and interest rate cuts in 2026 to sustain liquidity and growth. Structural supply risks persist as Chinese smelters’ overseas expansion faces higher energy costs and regulatory hurdles, while smelter disruptions linked to energy constraints, bauxite shortages, and geopolitical risks continue in regions such as Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia. On the data front, global aluminium output edged up 0.5% year-on-year in November, while China’s aluminium production rose 2.5%. The market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 2.68%. Aluminium has support at ₹314.8, below which prices may test ₹313. Resistance is seen at ₹318.9, and a breakout could lead to ₹321.2.
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
