DBT Bureau
Pune, 13 Jan 2026
U.S. oilseed production for 2025/26 is projected at 126.2 million tons, driven by higher soybean, canola, and sunflowerseed output, partly offset by lower cottonseed and peanut crops. Soybean production is estimated at 4.3 billion bushels, with harvested area up slightly and yield unchanged. U.S. soybean exports are reduced, while crush and ending stocks rise to 2.57 billion bushels and 350 million bushels, respectively. Global soybean production is raised to 425.7 million tons, primarily due to strong crops in Brazil and the U.S., with higher crush and ending stocks supporting ample global supply despite modest export reductions.
Key Highlights
• U.S. soybean production rises to 4.3 billion bushels, yield steady
• Harvested area slightly higher at 80.4 million acres
• U.S. soybean ending stocks projected at 350 million bushels
• Global soybean production up to 425.7 million tons, led by Brazil and U.S.
• Global ending stocks increase to 124.4 million tons amid strong supply
The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s latest oilseed report for 2025/26 indicates a modest increase in total production to 126.2 million tons, driven by higher soybean, canola, and sunflowerseed crops, partially offset by lower cottonseed and peanut output. U.S. soybean production is estimated at 4.3 billion bushels, with harvested area slightly higher at 80.4 million acres and yields holding steady at 53.0 bushels per acre. Beginning stocks, combined with higher production, raise total U.S. soybean supply by 17 million bushels.
Domestic soybean crush is forecast at 2.57 billion bushels, up 15 million on stronger soybean meal demand domestically and abroad. Soybean oil used for biofuel is lowered to 14.8 billion pounds, reflecting slower-than-expected use and substitution by tallow. Soybean exports are revised down 60 million bushels due to stronger competition from Brazil, while ending stocks rise sharply to 350 million bushels. Price forecasts are slightly weaker, with the U.S. season-average soybean price at $10.20 per bushel, soybean meal at $295 per short ton, and soybean oil unchanged at 53 cents per pound.
Globally, soybean production is raised 3.1 million tons to 425.7 million tons, led by stronger crops in Brazil and the U.S., partially offset by lower Chinese output. Brazil’s production rises to 178 million tons due to favorable weather in the Center West and southern regions, supporting higher yields. Global crush and soybean meal exports are higher, while overall exports are slightly reduced to 187.6 million tons. Global ending stocks increase 2.0 million tons to 124.4 million, driven primarily by higher stocks in the U.S. and Brazil.
Overall, U.S. and global soybean supply remains ample, supporting stable crush activity and moderate downward pressure on prices despite export competition.
Finally, strong U.S. and Brazilian soybean crops, higher crush, and rising ending stocks point to a well-supplied 2025/26 market, keeping prices subdued amid steady global demand.
