Debasis Mohapatra
Bengaluru, 21 June 2025
Aluminium prices at London Metal Exchanges have jumped close to $75 per tonne since the first week of June 2025. As Israel-Iran conflict rages with the entry of US, market is anticipating a sharp jump in crude oil prices.
Crude oil plays an important role in aluminium smelting. According to experts, more than 40% of the total cost of smelting could be energy. With oil pricing rising amid West Asian conflict, cost of production on alumina and aluminium is likely to rise.
Price Snapshot:
| Futures contract (Date) | LME Future Contract Price (3-month) |
| June 16,2025 | $2,506/tonne |
| June 17, 2025 | $2,530/tonne |
| June 18, 2025 | $2,544/ tonne |
| June 19, 2025 | $2,527/tonne |
| June 20, 2025 | $2,529.5/tonne |
Factors to watch out for:
- If Iran and US come to an agreement without further escalation, then oil prices will cool down. This will pull down aluminium prices.
- Middle East contributes around 10% of global aluminium production. Any disruption to Strait of Hormuz will impact movement of material.
- The inventory level of aluminium remains low. If inventory level rises, prices may be pulled down.
