Why aluminium price is rising?

Debasis Mohapatra

Bengaluru, 7 October 2025

Aluminium spot price at the London Metal Exchange has increased by more than $90 per tonne or around 3.5% in the last 10 days to hover around $2,713 per tonne at this point of time.

There are many reasons for such a rise with the major factor being the tight supply environment.

1: Chinese supply likely to be capped:

According to Kedia Advisory, China is likely to cap its production at 45-million-tonne annual ceiling, with capacity nearing saturation. This may limit further supply growth from the world’s largest producer.

2: Guinea Alumina factor:

Guinea lost all mining licenses, potentially halting ore supply to Emirates Global Aluminium, tightening global raw material availability.

3: Fall in inventories:

World Bureau of Metal Statistics reported a global aluminium deficit of 119,900 mt in July 2025, with January–July deficit at 985,300 mt, the report by Kedia Advisory said. LME aluminium inventories dropped by nearly 100,000 tonnes in early September to 375,000 tonnes. Meanwhile, SHFE-monitored stocks fell 2.4% WoW, further tightening visible inventories.