DBT Bureau
Pune, 2 March 2026
Gold rallied 1.5% to settle at ₹162,104, supported by renewed safe-haven demand amid uncertainty over U.S. tariff policy and rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran. The U.S. has begun imposing a temporary 10% global import tariff, with the rate set to rise to 15% for certain countries, adding to trade-related concerns. Meanwhile, U.S. jobless claims ticked slightly higher, though the unemployment rate remained steady in February. Demand signals from China were notably strong. Net gold imports via Hong Kong jumped 68.7% month-on-month in January to 20.585 tons. Physical gold traded at premiums of $12–$13 per ounce in China, reflecting solid post-holiday buying interest. The People’s Bank of China extended its gold-buying streak to a 15th straight month. In contrast, Indian dealers offered steep discounts of up to $65 per ounce as higher prices dampened demand. China’s broader gold data showed mixed trends. Total consumption fell 3.57% in 2025, with jewelry demand down sharply, while bar and coin investment surged 35.1%. ETF holdings and central bank reserves also rose significantly. Technically, gold is under fresh buying interest, with open interest up 7.11% to 8,316 contracts.
Silver surged 5.9% to settle at ₹274,998, driven by renewed safe-haven demand amid U.S. tariff uncertainty and heightened geopolitical risks. Markets reacted to policy confusion in Washington after the U.S. Supreme Court struck down broad reciprocal tariffs, only for the administration to introduce a new 10% global tariff that could rise to 15% for some countries. The shifting trade backdrop has raised concerns about the stability of existing trade agreements. At the same time, stronger-than-expected U.S. producer price data—up 0.5% month-on-month, with core prices rising 0.8%—highlighted persistent inflation pressures. While some Federal Reserve officials have adopted a more hawkish tone, money markets are still pricing in at least two rate cuts this year, with the first expected in July. Fundamentals in the physical market remain tight. Silver inventories on the Shanghai Futures Exchange have fallen to around 350 tonnes, their lowest level since 2015, marking a dramatic drop from the 2021 peak. London vault holdings also edged lower to 27,729 tonnes by the end of January. Technically, the rally was fueled by short covering, with open interest plunging 20.86% to 2,785 contracts.
Overall, with safe-haven flows intensifying, physical market signals diverging between regions, and technical indicators pointing to strong momentum, both gold and silver are likely to remain highly sensitive to geopolitical developments, trade policy shifts, and upcoming U.S. economic data in the near term.
Source: Kedia Advisory
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