DBT Bureau
Pune, 29 August 2026
Sunflower oil prices have climbed over 7% since the start of July, driven by a combination of festival-season stocking and tightening global supplies, according to the latest Sunoil Report from Kedia Stocks and Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
Sunoil spot prices closed at ₹1,683.80, up 8.54% over three months and 24.56% over the past year. Indian crude sunflower oil import quotes advanced to $1,485–1,490 per tonne CIF Mumbai amid persistent Black Sea tightness.
Imports Rise, Then Pull Back
India’s sunflower oil imports rose 4% month-on-month to 251,639 tonnes as refiners stocked up ahead of the festival season. However, August imports are estimated to have fallen sharply — around 28% lower at approximately 180,000 tonnes — as a steep ₹229 premium over soyoil pushed price-sensitive buyers, particularly in southern states, toward cheaper soyoil and refined palmolein.
Black Sea Bottlenecks Persist
Supply-side pressures remain a key driver. Roughly 150,000 tonnes of Black Sea sunflower oil shipments scheduled for August–September have faced delays, while Red Sea shipping diversions could add up to 14 days to delivery timelines for Indian buyers. Russian FOB sunflower oil prices rose $30–40 per tonne to $1,350–1,360/MT.
In a notable market development, MCX launched cash-settled Crude Sunflower Oil futures, a move expected to improve domestic price discovery and liquidity.
Global Supply Picture Mixed
Global sunflower oil carry-in stocks fell 2.39% year-on-year to a four-year low of 2,488 thousand tonnes, lending support to prices. However, looking further ahead, global sunflower seed production for 2026/27 is projected by the USDA’s WASDE to surge over 13% year-on-year to a record 62.7 million tonnes, with global sunflower oil output forecast at 22.4 million tonnes — pointing to a potential supply rebound.
Ukraine’s oilseed sector reflects this rebound story: sunflower seed production is estimated at 13.5–13.6 million tonnes for 2026/27, while combined Black Sea (Russia and Ukraine) production is projected around 33.7 million tonnes. The EU harvest is expected at 9.5–9.8 million tonnes, up sharply from drought-hit 2025/26 levels.
Technical Outlook: Rounding Bottom Supports Further Upside
Charts show sunflower oil has formed a rounding-bottom pattern, with prices holding above key moving averages. However, daily and weekly RSI readings have turned down from overbought territory, hinting at possible short-term profit-taking.
Kedia Advisory’s price outlook calls for a “buy on dips” approach: prices may initially soften toward ₹1,640–1,650, with support at ₹1,600, before rebounding toward ₹1,700–1,730 over the next one to two months — supported by Black Sea logistics delays and low global carry-in stocks, even as broader output expands.
Source: Kedia Stocks and Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd. (SEBI Reg. No. INH000006156)
Disclaimer : Investment in securities & commodities market are subject to market risks, read all the related documents carefully before investing
