DBT Bureau
Pune, 19 Oct 2026
India’s rabi crop outlook faces growing risks from deficient rainfall, inadequate soil moisture, depleted irrigation reserves and El Niño concerns. Rajasthan recorded a 55% rainfall deficit during October 1–18, while Maharashtra received just 3% of normal rainfall and Madhya Pradesh reported a 96% deficit. Although Punjab and Haryana received 256% and 191% excess rainfall, respectively, uncertainty remains over winter precipitation. Delayed sowing threatens acreage, particularly for pulses and oilseeds, with 60–70% of their rabi area being rain-fed. Production risks could increase if terminal heat shortens grain filling, while adequate Western Disturbances remain critical for recovery.
Key Highlights
- Rajasthan recorded a 55% rainfall deficit during October 1–18, raising concerns over rabi sowing.
- Maharashtra received just 3% of normal October rainfall, with 305 of 358 talukas declared drought-hit.
- Madhya Pradesh reported a 96% rainfall deficit in October, threatening soil moisture and crop establishment.
- Pulses and oilseeds face elevated risks as 60–70% of their rabi acreage is rain-fed.
- The government targets 177.72 million tonnes of rabi foodgrain production in 2026–27 amid growing weather uncertainties.
India’s rabi crop outlook is facing increasing pressure as rainfall deficits, declining soil moisture and El Niño concerns threaten sowing progress and crop yields. Rajasthan recorded a 55% rainfall deficit between October 1 and 18, while Maharashtra received just 3% of normal rainfall during the period. Madhya Pradesh reported a 96% deficit, highlighting the worsening moisture situation across key agricultural regions.
The rainfall shortage follows September deficits of 9% in Rajasthan, 52% in Maharashtra and 64% in Punjab. Maharashtra has declared 305 of its 358 talukas, nearly 85%, drought-hit. However, Punjab and Haryana have received substantial October rainfall, recording 256% and 191% above normal, respectively, potentially supporting wheat sowing during its usual first-week-of-November window.
Insufficient rainfall is threatening both acreage and productivity, particularly for pulses and oilseeds, as 60–70% of their rabi area depends on rain-fed conditions. In Rajasthan, gram acreage was reportedly below 6,000 hectares and mustard acreage around one lakh hectares, significantly below the respective 2026–27 targets of 21.5 lakh hectares and 37.5 lakh hectares. Limited reservoir water could further constrain irrigation and reduce cultivated area.
The production outlook also faces risks from unusually high temperatures and the possibility of inadequate winter rainfall. El Niño is expected to peak by December, potentially suppressing Western Disturbance activity, although sufficient winter precipitation could replenish soil moisture and support crop development. Experts indicated that two to three Western Disturbances would be needed to make a meaningful difference.
The government has set a rabi foodgrain production target of 177.72 million tonnes for 2026–27, including 121 million tonnes of wheat, 17.20 million tonnes of pulses and 22.30 million tonnes of nutri/coarse cereals. Gram production is targeted at 12.33 million tonnes and mustard at 14.3 million tonnes.
Persistent rainfall deficits, limited irrigation and El Niño-related heat threaten rabi acreage and yields, making winter rainfall crucial to achieving India’s 2026–27 production targets.
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
