DBT Bureau
Pune, 29 Dec 2025
Gold prices extended gains, settling higher by 1.29% at ₹1,39,873, supported by expectations of further Federal Reserve easing and rising geopolitical tensions. US economic growth remained resilient in the third quarter, with GDP expanding faster than the previous period, while labor market indicators signaled continued but gradually moderating job creation. Markets continue to price in two rate cuts in 2026 as inflation cools and employment conditions soften, despite divided views among policymakers. Safe-haven demand was further boosted by geopolitical risks after the US blockaded oil tankers linked to Venezuela. Gold is now up nearly 70% year-to-date, positioning it for its strongest annual performance since 1979, underpinned by sustained central bank buying and strong inflows into gold-backed funds. In the physical market, record prices dampened retail demand. Gold discounts in India widened to over six-month highs, with dealers offering discounts of up to $61 per ounce, compared with $37 last week. In China, discounts narrowed sharply to $15–30 per ounce from last week’s five-year highs of $64, indicating some stabilization in buying interest. Elsewhere, gold traded at small premiums in Singapore and Hong Kong, while Japan saw mixed discounts and premiums. Technically, the market is under fresh buying, with open interest rising 1.94% to 14,832 as prices gained ₹1,776. Gold has support at ₹1,38,805, with further downside at ₹1,37,745. Resistance is seen at ₹1,40,695, and a break above could test ₹1,41,525.
Market analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹137745- ₹141525.
- Gold hits fresh record as rate-cut expectations fuel buying
- US economic growth stays solid despite moderating labor market
- Venezuela tensions lift safe-haven demand across commodity markets
Silver prices surged sharply, settling up by 7.15% at ₹2,39,787, driven by expectations of US interest rate cuts and heightened safe-haven demand. Markets are increasingly pricing in two Federal Reserve rate reductions next year as mixed economic indicators strengthen the case for policy easing. While US third-quarter GDP expanded at a robust 4.3% annualized pace, softer consumer confidence in December and flat factory output in November reinforced expectations of a more accommodative stance ahead. Geopolitical tensions further supported sentiment after the US ordered a blockade of sanctioned Venezuelan oil tankers, lifting risk premiums across commodity markets. Year-to-date, silver has rallied nearly 149%, underpinned by a structural supply deficit, strong industrial demand, and its designation as a US critical mineral. Supply-side concerns intensified as Chinese silver stockpiles dropped to their lowest level in a decade. Inventories at Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell to the lowest since 2015, while Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes hit a more than nine-year low following record Chinese exports exceeding 660 tonnes in October. Despite easing some pressure through shipments to London, liquidity outside China remains tight, with elevated borrowing costs persisting in the London market. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest declining 3.95% to 12,089 while prices jumped ₹15,997. Silver has support at ₹2,28,770, with further downside near ₹2,17,760. Resistance stands at ₹2,46,395, and a sustained move above this level could open the path toward ₹2,53,010.
Market analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹217760- ₹253010.
- Silver climbed reach a fresh high, driven by expectations of US rate cuts and safe-haven demand.
- Structural supply deficit continues to tighten silver market
- Strong industrial demand supports long-term silver consumption
