DBT Bureau
Pune, 30 Oct 2025
Crude oil prices rose 0.79% to 5,372 as traders weighed the impact of fresh U.S. sanctions on Russian oil and stronger-than-expected inventory data. The EIA reported a 6.9-million-barrel decline in U.S. crude stocks, well above expectations, alongside notable drawdowns in gasoline (-5.94 million barrels) and distillate (-3.36 million barrels) inventories. However, Cushing, Oklahoma reserves increased by 1.33 million barrels, indicating localized storage buildup. Market sentiment firmed after reports that a Russian crude tanker bound for India turned back, suggesting early disruptions following Washington’s sanctions on Rosneft and Lukoil. Indian refiners have paused new Russian oil purchases pending guidance, although IOC confirmed continued compliant imports. The International Energy Agency (IEA) raised its 2025 global oil supply forecast following OPEC+’s output hikes, but trimmed demand projections amid economic headwinds. The IEA expects global oil use to rise by 700,000 barrels per day annually over 2025–26, indicating subdued consumption growth. Conversely, OPEC’s monthly report maintained strong demand forecasts and noted OPEC+ output increased 630,000 bpd to 43.05 million bpd in September, implying only a small 50,000 bpd supply deficit if production levels persist. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest increased by 1.02% to 14,296 lots, with prices up 42. Support lies at 5,302, below which prices may test 5,231, while resistance is at 5,427, and a break above could push levels toward 5,481.
Market Analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5231-5481.
- Crude oil rose as traders assessed the impact of US sanctions on Russian oil and fresh inventory data.
- EIA reported a larger-than-expected 6.9 mbls decline in US crude stockpiles, along with drops in gasoline and distillate inventories.
- IEA raised its forecast for global oil supply growth this year following the decision by the OPEC+ group to hike production
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
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