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India’s Energy Transition is Entering its Second, Harder Phase

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The return of the king: Middle East fires ignite coal’s massive comeback
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By Sadananda Mohapatra, Senior Business Journalist

As Solar Sets, India Rushes to Wind and Storage for Evening Rescue

India’s solar buildout has been one of the more consequential energy investments of the past decade. Installed solar capacity stood at 162.15 GW, making India the world’s third largest solar market. In the first half of 2026 alone, India added 26.34 GW of new solar capacity. The numbers are large and they are real. They are also, increasingly, not the whole story.

Every evening, solar generation collapses. Households switch on lights, metro systems keep running, industries draw power, and the grid must replace tens of gigawatts of clean electricity within a few hours. Coal ramps up almost every single day to fill that gap. India’s renewable challenge has shifted from how to generate clean electricity to how to deliver it when demand actually peaks. The grid runs on physics, not installation targets.

Wind is part of the answer, but not alone. India’s 57.44 GW of installed wind capacity has a complementary generation profile to solar: wind strengthens during evenings, overnight and through the southwest monsoon, precisely when solar is absent. Add battery storage and surplus afternoon solar can be shifted into the evening peak. It is the solar, wind and storage combination, not any single technology, that converts intermittent generation into firm, dispatchable power. Hence the Ministry of New & Rewable Eneregy (MNRE) says hybrid and storage-integrated solutions aligned with demand curves are what distribution companies actually need, and recent SECI tenders are already reflecting that shift.

After years of solar-first policy that delivered real results, attention is now shifting to what was left behind. The MNRE chaired a dedicated wind sector review meeting on July 24, addressing domestic manufacturing bottlenecks, repowering of ageing turbines, land acquisition challenges and duty structures on raw materials. These are the operational frictions that have kept India’s wind capacity at 57 GW while solar raced past 162 GW. Wind targets stand at 100 GW by 2030 and 155 GW by 2035. Closing that gap requires the kind of policy urgency that solar enjoyed a decade ago.

On storage, the direction is equally clear. India is targeting 74 GW of energy storage capacity by FY2032. Pumped storage projects totalling 15,870 MW are under construction. Battery energy storage tenders are accelerating across Gujarat, Rajasthan, Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra. The infrastructure for dispatchable renewables is being built, deliberately if not yet at the pace the grid demands.

India solved the solar problem. Wind bottlenecks and storage gaps are the next frontier. The government knows it. The build-out is underway. Whether it moves fast enough to meaningfully reduce coal’s evening role before 2030 is the question the next few years will answer.


Joules Capsule
Quick reads from the world of energy this week

India and Bangladesh Hold Bilateral Talks on Cross-Border Power Trade

India and Bangladesh held bilateral talks on July 24 on cross-border power trade, with Power Secretary Pankaj Agarwal meeting a Bangladeshi delegation led by Power Division Secretary Mirana Mahrukh. Discussions covered transmission interconnections, the Maitree power project, and renewable energy and storage cooperation. The Maitree Super Thermal Power Plant in Rampal, Bangladesh — a joint venture between NTPC and Bangladesh Power Development Board — has been a cornerstone of bilateral power cooperation since commissioning began. Both sides agreed to strengthen engagement through established structured mechanisms, signalling continuity in a relationship that has made India Bangladesh’s largest electricity supplier.

India Mulls Carbon Credit for Ethanol and Biofuel Vehicles

The Ministry of Power released draft Corporate Average Fuel Economy 2027 norms on July 16, introducing Carbon Neutrality Factors for the first time — formally recognising ethanol, compressed biogas and biofuels as lower-carbon fuels in fleet compliance calculations. E20-compatible vehicles receive an 8% tailpipe emissions reduction before assessment, while flex-fuel ethanol vehicles receive a 22.3% adjustment. Super credits apply to battery electric vehicles, plug-in hybrids, strong hybrids and flex-fuel vehicles. Fuel efficiency targets tighten progressively from 3.996 litres per 100 km in FY28 to 3.327 litres by FY32. Stakeholder comments are due August 6.

Rising Crude Imports Push India’s Oil Trade Deficit Toward New Highs

India’s oil trade deficit stood at $120 billion in FY2025-26, with petroleum imports surging 62% year-on-year to $22.7 billion in May alone as refiners maintained high throughput through the West Asia disruption. Crude oil import volumes rose 40% in June. With Brent projected to average $90-95 per barrel in FY27 against $70.3 per barrel last year, Crisil forecasts India’s current account deficit widening to 2.2% of GDP this fiscal from 0.8% in FY26. India imports over 85% of its crude requirement — a structural exposure that every geopolitical shock converts directly into a wider trade deficit.

About the Author:

Sadananda Mohapatra is a veteran business journalist with decades of experience covering India’s energy, industry, and economic landscape. With stints at reputed financial news publications like The Business Standard & NewsWire18, he reported extensively on India’s power sector, minerals policy, coal and energy regulation, and industrial developments — building a deep, ground-level understanding of the global energy economy. His work spans corporate affairs, infrastructure, and policy analysis, with a particular focus on eastern India’s resource-rich industrial corridor. He currently writes on the global energy landscape through his newsletter, The Joule’s Stack.

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