The U.S. soybean outlook for 2026-27 remains largely unchanged, with stable supply, demand, and price projections. For 2025-26, higher soybean crushing activity has been supported by stronger soybean meal exports and domestic demand, while increased soybean oil use in biofuels has offset lower exports. Globally, soybean production has been slightly reduced due to lower acreage in Russia, but higher beginning stocks, particularly in Argentina, have led to a modest increase in ending stocks. Argentina’s larger crop and export availability continue to support global supplies, keeping the overall soybean market adequately supplied despite minor production adjustments.
Key Highlights
- U.S. soybean supply, demand, and price outlook remain unchanged for 2026-27.
- Higher soybean crushing is driven by stronger meal exports and domestic usage.
- Soybean oil demand for biofuel production increased in the U.S.
- Global soybean production was slightly lowered due to reduced Russian acreage.
- Global soybean ending stocks are forecast to rise to 124.9 million tonnes.
The global soybean market continues to reflect a relatively balanced supply outlook, with only minor adjustments made to production and stock estimates for the 2026-27 season. In the United States, soybean supply, demand, and price forecasts remain unchanged, indicating stable market fundamentals despite evolving demand trends.
For the 2025-26 season, U.S. soybean crushing activity has been revised higher due to stronger demand for soybean meal in both export and domestic markets. Increased livestock feed consumption and improved meal export demand have encouraged processors to maintain higher crushing volumes. Additionally, soybean oil demand from the biofuel sector has continued to expand, reflecting strong renewable fuel requirements.
While domestic processing demand has strengthened, U.S. soybean exports for 2025-26 have been revised lower based on recent trade data. The reduction in exports offsets the increase in crushing activity, resulting in no change to projected ending stocks. The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2026-27 is forecast at $11.40 per bushel, while soybean meal and soybean oil prices are projected at $310 per short ton and 70 cents per pound, respectively.
Globally, soybean supply and demand estimates show slightly higher ending stocks despite a small reduction in production. World soybean production has been lowered marginally due to reduced harvested area in Russia. However, higher beginning stocks, primarily resulting from an upward revision in Argentina’s previous crop production to 50 million tonnes, have more than compensated for the decline.
Argentina remains a key contributor to global soybean availability, with increased export potential helping offset lower shipments from Russia. As a result, global soybean ending stocks are forecast to rise slightly to 124.9 million tonnes, indicating comfortable supply conditions for the upcoming season.
Stable U.S. fundamentals and ample global soybean inventories, supported by stronger Argentine supplies, are expected to keep the soybean market well-supplied despite minor production setbacks in some regions.
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
