DBT Bureau
Pune, 3 Nov 2025
Crude oil yesterday settled higher by 0.58% at 5,422 as renewed concerns over potential military escalation in Venezuela temporarily outweighed fears of oversupply in the global market. OPEC+ members are expected to confirm a production increase of 137,000 barrels per day for December as part of efforts to regain market share, aligning with rising output from U.S. and North Sea producers. Data from the Joint Organizations Data Initiative showed Saudi Arabia’s crude exports climbing to a six-month high of 6.407 million barrels per day in August, while the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported record output of 13.6 million bpd last week. In the U.S., crude inventories dropped by 6.858 million barrels in the week ending October 24, far exceeding market expectations, while gasoline and distillate fuel stocks fell by 5.941 million and 3.362 million barrels respectively. However, Cushing, Oklahoma inventories rose by 1.334 million barrels — the biggest increase since August. OPEC, in its latest monthly report, maintained steady global demand growth projections for 2025 and 2026 but highlighted that the oil market may face a smaller deficit next year as output rises. OPEC+ production increased by 630,000 bpd in September to 43.05 million bpd, implying only a minor deficit of 50,000 bpd if current rates persist. Technically, crude oil is under fresh buying as open interest surged 4.01% to 14,867 while prices rose 31. Support is seen at 5,354, below which it may test 5,287, while resistance is at 5,472, with potential to rise toward 5,523.
Market Analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is 5287-5523.
- Crude oil gains as concerns of military escalation in Venezuela momentarily outweighed the view of an oversupplied energy market.
- OPEC+ nations are set to confirm an increase of 137,000 barrels per day in the cartel’s output for December.
- Crude exports from top exporter Saudi Arabia hit a six-month high of 6.407 million bpd in August.
Natural gas yesterday settled higher by 4.68% at 364.9 as stronger heating demand expectations combined with robust LNG exports supported prices. Colder weather forecasts across the U.S. ahead of winter lifted gas-intensive heating requirements, while steady global demand for LNG from Europe and Asia added further momentum. Average gas flows to the eight major U.S. LNG export terminals hit a record 16.5 billion cubic feet per day in October, up from 15.7 bcfd in September, signaling strong export activity. The increase comes as Europe continues to replace Russian gas imports amid lower inventories, and the U.S. administration pushes energy trade agreements with Asian nations. Despite rising exports, domestic production stayed high at 107 bcfd in October, with underground storage levels continuing to build. The latest data showed U.S. natural gas stocks rising by 74 billion cubic feet in the week ending October 27, exceeding market expectations of a 71 bcf increase, bringing total inventories to 3,853 bcf—0.8% higher than last year and 4.6% above the five-year average. The U.S. Energy Information Administration projected record output and demand in 2025, with dry gas production reaching 107.1 bcfd and consumption at 91.6 bcfd. LNG exports are also set to rise to 14.7 bcfd in 2025 and 16.3 bcfd in 2026. Technically, the market is under fresh buying as open interest rose 3.02% to 18,115 while prices gained 16.3. Support is at 354.9, below which prices could test 345, while resistance is at 371.8, with a potential move toward 378.8.
Market Analysis:
- Naturalgas trading range for the day is 345-378.8.
- Natural gas rose as higher heating demand in the near term met the outlook of ample LNG exports to Europe and Asia.
- Expectations of colder weather in the US ahead of the winter supported demand for gas-intensive heating.
- The average flow of gas to the eight big US LNG export plants were at 16.5 bcfd in October, well above the 15.7 bcfd from the previous month.
