DBT Bureau
Pune, 11 Sep 2026
Copper prices witnessed sharp volatility, hitting a record high before falling more than 4% as uncertainty over potential US tariffs triggered heavy selling. Despite the short-term pressure, tight supply and strong structural demand continue to support a positive medium-to-long-term outlook.
Executive Summary: Copper swung violently from a record $14,875/MT to below $14,300/MT within the same session, as uncertainty over proposed US tariffs triggered aggressive liquidation. Yet tight ex-US availability, constrained production growth and structural demand continue to favour a positive medium-to-long-term outlook.
From celebrating a fresh record high to watching more than 4% disappear within hours, copper traders witnessed both extremes of market sentiment in a single session.
LME three-month copper touched an all-time high of $14,875/MT before dropping to around $14,300/MT, while COMEX copper declined about 4.7% to $6.49/lb. The trigger was a Reuters report that the White House has not yet decided on tariffs on refined copper, despite the market positioning for a potential 15% tariff from January 2027, rising to 30% in 2028. On MCX, copper similarly plunged from around ₹1,430.90/kg toward ₹1,370/kg, a high-to-low correction of approximately ₹61/kg, or 4.3%.
However, one day’s policy-driven crash does not erase the fundamental forces that pushed copper to record territory. US tariff expectations have diverted enormous quantities of metal toward America: COMEX inventories reached a record 675,185 MT by August 25, while the US imported nearly 885,000 MT of refined copper cathode during H1 2026, more than double H1 2024 volumes. July imports alone exceeded 220,000 MT, including a record 53,290 MT from Congo.
Supply growth also remains limited. ICSG forecasts 2026 mine production growth at only 1.6% and refined production at just 0.4%, against 1.6% growth in refined usage. Its latest official balance projects a relatively small 96,000-MT surplus, while highlighting continued demand from energy transition, urbanisation, digitalisation and data centres.
Outlook: Tariff uncertainty could keep copper highly volatile in the short term, but constrained supply and structural electrification demand keep the medium-to-long-term outlook positive. Meaningful corrections should be viewed as accumulation opportunities, with our bullish year-end objectives around $16,500/MT on LME and ₹1,600/kg on MCX, subject to continued supply tightness and resilient global demand.
