DBT Bureau
Pune, 26 Nov 2025
Aluminium on 25th Nov settled marginally lower by 0.07% at ₹268.15, pressured by lingering concerns over demand prospects in top consumer China. Softness in manufacturing activity and efforts to curb overcapacity weighed on sentiment. However, the downside remained limited as expectations of a December U.S. rate cut grew following dovish comments from Federal Reserve officials, improving the broader risk appetite. Supply-related factors also provided support. Chinese smelters are approaching government-imposed capacity limits, limiting output growth. Global production trends were mixed: the International Aluminium Institute reported October primary aluminium output at 6.294 million tons, up 0.6% YoY. Aluminium inventories at major Japanese ports dropped 3.6% in October to 329,100 tons, while SHFE-monitored stocks rose 7.67%, reflecting a divergence in regional supply-demand balances. Additional supply disruptions also tightened the outlook: Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter suspended one potline due to equipment failure, Century Aluminium curtailed two-thirds of its Iceland output, and Alcoa announced the closure of its Kwinana refinery in Australia. In the demand landscape, China imported 350,000 tons of unwrought aluminium and products in October, up 10.4% YoY, following strong September imports, signaling healthy demand from construction, transport, and packaging sectors. The market is witnessing fresh selling, with open interest rising 11.08% to 2,978 as prices edged lower by ₹0.2. Support lies at ₹266.8, below which ₹265.3 may be tested. Resistance is at ₹270.1, and a break above could lift prices toward ₹271.9.
Market Analysis:
- Aluminium trading range for the day is ₹265.3-₹271.9.
- Aluminium dropped as concern about demand in top metals consumer China weighed on the market.
- However downside seen limited supported by concerns that Chinese smelters are nearing government-imposed capacity limits, constraining supply.
- Global primary aluminium output in October rose 0.6% year on year to 6.294 million tonnes
Source:Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
