DBT Bureau
Pune, 24 Dec 2025
Aluminium prices ended marginally lower, settling down 0.04% at ₹284.4, as markets pared earlier gains on profit booking after recent supply-led optimism. Prices had firmed following South32’s announcement that its Mozal smelter in Mozambique will be placed under care and maintenance by March 2026 due to the lack of a new power agreement, a move expected to tighten global aluminium supplies next year. Supply concerns were further amplified by disruptions at Iceland’s Grundartangi smelter, where one potline was suspended due to equipment failure. Support also came from falling inventories at major Japanese ports, which declined 5.2% month-on-month to 312,100 tonnes by end-November, alongside producers seeking sharply higher premiums for January–March shipments. Fundamental support remains underpinned by expectations that China, the world’s largest producer, is nearing its annual output cap of 45 million tonnes. Global primary aluminium output rose 0.5% year-on-year to 6.086 million tonnes in November, according to IAI data. However, upside was capped by renewed demand concerns from China, where weak macro data continued to weigh on sentiment. China’s imports of unwrought aluminium and products fell 14% year-on-year in November, although cumulative imports for January–November were up 4.4%. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 22.63% to 1,210 as prices slipped marginally. Aluminium finds support at ₹283.1, below which ₹281.8 could be tested. Resistance is seen at ₹286.3, with further upside at ₹288.2.
Market analysis:
- Aluminium trading range for the day is ₹281.8-₹288.2.
- Aluminium pared gains on profit booking after prices rose after Mozal smelter in Mozambique will be placed under care.
- Declining inventories at major Japanese ports, which fell 5.2% month-on-month to 312,100 metric tons by the end of November.
- Global primary aluminium output in November rose 0.5% year on year to 6.086 million tonnes – IAI
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
