DBT Bureau
Pune, 24 Oct 2025
Aluminium prices edged higher by 0.53% to settle at 265.7, supported by tightening global supply conditions after Century Aluminium announced a two-thirds production curtailment at its Iceland smelter due to an electrical equipment failure. The supply disruption comes amid concerns that China’s aluminium output cap of 45 million tonnes may be breached this year, raising worries about near-term shortages. Beijing’s decision to slow industrial capacity growth—cutting its annual base metal output target to 1.5% for 2025–26 from 5% previously—has also reinforced expectations of tighter supply ahead. According to IAI, global primary aluminium output rose modestly by 0.9% year-on-year to 6.08 million tonnes in September. Aluminium stocks at Japan’s three major ports increased slightly by 1.8% to 341,300 tonnes, while China’s aluminium trade flows showed mixed trends. Exports of unwrought aluminium and products fell to 521,000 tonnes in September from 534,000 tonnes in August, but imports jumped 35.4% year-on-year to 360,000 tonnes. In the first nine months of 2025, China’s total imports reached 3.01 million tonnes, up 5.7% from the same period in 2024, reflecting steady demand. Meanwhile, Alcoa’s decision to close its Kwinana alumina refinery in Australia and increased aluminium use in new data centers have strengthened long-term consumption prospects. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined by 7.05% to 2,096 while prices rose 1.4. Support is seen at 264.7, below which prices may test 263.7, while resistance is at 266.3, with a breakout potentially leading to 266.9.
Market Analysis:
- Aluminium trading range for the day is 263.7-266.9.
- Aluminium gains as Century Aluminium said its smelter in Iceland was forced to curtail production by two thirds.
- Global aluminium output rises 0.9% year on year in September – IAI
- China aluminium production up 1.8 % to 3.81 mln metric tons in Sept
Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research
