DBT Bureau
Pune, 22 Jan 2026
Accoring to Kedia Advisory, aluminium prices edged marginally higher, settling up by 0.1% at ₹315.05, supported by supply-side concerns after China reached the government-mandated production capacity ceiling. Sentiment was underpinned by signs of a structurally tight global market, even as near-term inventory data appeared mixed. According to the International Aluminium Institute, global primary aluminium output rose 0.5% year-on-year in December to 6.296 million tonnes. However, the global market remained in deficit, with primary aluminium supply falling short of demand by 108,700 tonnes in October. For the first ten months of the year, the cumulative shortfall stood at 955,500 tonnes, as consumption of 62.17 million tonnes exceeded production of 61.22 million tonnes. mports of unwrought aluminium and products also rose 7.1% year-on-year in December to 320,000 tonnes, reflecting steady demand. Policy support added to optimism, with China’s central bank signaling reserve requirement and interest rate cuts in 2026 to support growth. On the supply front, disruptions persisted globally due to high energy costs, bauxite shortages, and operational issues in countries such as Iceland, Mozambique, and Australia, while Chinese smelter projects in Indonesia faced regulatory and cost challenges. Technically, the market is under short covering, with open interest down 13.07% as prices firmed slightly. Aluminium is supported at ₹313.8, with further downside at ₹312.5. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹317.1, and a break above this level could open the way toward ₹319.1.
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