DBT Bureau
Pune, 2 Feb 2026
Aluminium prices corrected by 1.72% to settle at ₹308.4, as profit booking emerged across the metals complex, tracking the sharp selloff in gold, silver and copper. The move was largely driven by a stronger U.S. dollar, with the dollar index rebounding above 97.14 from four-year lows after President Donald Trump nominated Kevin Warsh to succeed Jerome Powell as Federal Reserve Chair, reinforcing expectations of a firmer monetary stance. The decline followed a strong rally on Thursday, when aluminium surged to ₹361.25 on tightening global supply and improving demand sentiment. Fundamentally, the medium-term outlook remains supported by supply-side disruptions at key smelters in Iceland, Mozambique and Australia, which have constrained near-term availability. Goldman Sachs raised its first-half average aluminium price forecast to $3,150 per tonne, citing low inventories, power constraints for new smelters in Indonesia, and strong demand from electric vehicles and power grids. Optimism has also been underpinned by China’s supportive policy stance, with the central bank signaling rate and reserve ratio cuts in 2026. On the data front, global primary aluminium output rose marginally in December, while inventories showed mixed trends. Stocks increased at Japanese ports and SHFE warehouses, and China’s refined aluminium production hit a record high in December. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 13.92%. Aluminium has support at ₹297.8, below which ₹287.2 may be tested, while resistance is seen at ₹316.2, and a breakout could target ₹324.
Copper prices corrected sharply, settling lower by 4.9% at ₹1,229.75, as jittery investors moved to lock in profits after the recent record high of ₹1,480.30. The pullback came amid fading expectations of aggressive U.S. interest rate cuts and a steadier dollar, which reduced speculative appetite. Sentiment was also pressured by a visible build-up in global inventories. COMEX copper stocks climbed above 500,000 tonnes for the first time on record, while LME inventories rose to their highest level since May 2025, pushing total global holdings above 900,000 tonnes. Shanghai Futures Exchange inventories also increased to a seasonal high, signalling sluggish near-term consumption, particularly in China. On the supply side, Zambia reported an 8% rise in copper output in 2025, while Peru’s production fell over 11% year-on-year in November, highlighting mixed global supply dynamics. The ICSG reported a widening surplus in the refined copper market, with November showing a 94,000-ton surplus. However, structural support remains from long-term demand linked to energy transition and AI, and LME on-warrant stocks have dropped sharply due to continued metal flows to the U.S. Goldman Sachs raised its H1-2026 copper price forecast, citing scarcity outside the U.S., though it does not expect prices above $13,000 to be sustained. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 18.21% alongside falling prices. Copper has support at ₹1,174.4, with further downside toward ₹1,119. Resistance is seen at ₹1,287.6, and a break above could test ₹1,345.4.
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research
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