DBT Bureau
Pune, 17 April 2026
Bullion prices declined while crude oil surged, as changing sentiment around potential U.S.-Iran peace talks and evolving supply-demand dynamics drove volatility across commodity markets, according to the latest report from Kedia Advisory. Here are the key support and resistance levels for gold, silver and crude oil.
Gold prices slipped by 0.52% to settle at ₹1,53,152, as easing geopolitical tensions reduced safe-haven demand. Optimism around a potential U.S.-Iran peace deal, along with comments from Donald Trump suggesting the conflict may be nearing an end, weighed on prices. Softer oil prices have also helped ease inflation concerns, reinforcing expectations that the Federal Reserve may hold rates steady in the near term. However, underlying support for gold remains intact. U.S. inflation data showed prices rising at the fastest pace in nearly four years, keeping uncertainty around future rate decisions alive. At the same time, central bank demand continues to be a key pillar, with China extending its gold purchases for the 17th consecutive month. According to the World Gold Council, global central banks remained net buyers in early 2026, highlighting sustained institutional interest. Physical demand trends are mixed. In India, buying interest has picked up slightly ahead of the upcoming festival season, although elevated prices are limiting aggressive purchases. In contrast, China has seen softer retail demand, reflected in narrowing premiums. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 2.73%. Gold has immediate support at ₹1,52,390, with further downside toward ₹1,51,630. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹1,54,450, and a move above this level could push prices toward ₹1,55,750.
Market analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹151630-₹155750.
- Gold prices dropped amid hopes for a peace deal between the U.S. and Iran helped ease concerns.
- President Donald Trump said the war is “close to over,” helping support sentiment across markets.
- Economic growth will be slower this quarter amid war, US Treasury chief says
Silver prices fell sharply by 1.24% to settle at ₹2,48,628, as improving sentiment around a potential resolution to the US-Iran conflict reduced safe-haven demand. Reports suggesting a possible ceasefire extension to allow further negotiations have eased market concerns, weighing on bullion prices. On the macro front, comments from Alberto Musalem indicated that current interest rate levels are likely to remain unchanged for some time, despite ongoing supply-side inflation risks. U.S. economic data presented a mixed picture—manufacturing output unexpectedly declined in March, while jobless claims dropped to 207,000, pointing to continued resilience in the labor market. These factors have kept expectations around monetary policy steady, limiting strong directional moves in silver. From a supply perspective, global inventories remain comfortable. Holdings in London vaults rose slightly to 27,487 tonnes at the end of March, reflecting adequate physical availability and capping any sharp upside. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh selling pressure, with open interest rising by 2.24%, indicating the build-up of short positions. Silver has immediate support at ₹2,45,935, and a break below this level could lead to further downside toward ₹2,43,240. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹2,53,530, and a sustained move above this level could push prices toward ₹2,58,430.
Market analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹243240-₹258430.
- Silver dropped as markets remain cautiously optimistic that a deal could be reached to end the US-Iran war.
- Fed’s Musalem said that “supply shocks are placing the Fed’s inflation and employment targets at risk”.
- Manufacturing output in US decreased 0.1% month-over-month in March 2026, missing market expectations for a 0.1% gain.
Crude oil prices surged by 2.88% to settle at ₹8,856, as uncertainty around U.S.-Iran peace talks reignited concerns over supply disruptions. While discussions are expected to resume soon, the lack of a concrete agreement—along with the U.S. blockade on Iranian ports—has kept markets on edge. Comments from Scott Bessent about tightening sanctions on Iranian and Russian oil have further added to supply-side worries. The broader supply picture remains tight. Sharp declines in output from key Middle East producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, Kuwait, and the UAE, reflect the ongoing impact of disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz. This has prompted firms like UBS to raise their oil price forecasts for the coming quarters. Meanwhile, U.S. inventory data provided additional support, with crude stocks unexpectedly falling alongside significant draws in gasoline and distillates, pointing to steady underlying demand despite softer refinery activity. On the demand side, OPEC has slightly lowered its second-quarter demand outlook, citing temporary weakness due to geopolitical uncertainty, though it expects recovery later in the year. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising sharply by 33.2%. Crude oil has immediate support at ₹8,609, with further downside toward ₹8,363. On the upside, resistance is seen at ₹8,990, and a move above this level could push prices toward ₹9,125.
Market analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹8363-₹9125.
- Crude oil prices rose as market questioned whether peace talks between U.S. and Iran would achieve a deal to end the war.
- Crude inventories fell by 913,000 barrels to 463.8 million barrels in the week ended April 10, the EIA said.
- U.S. gasoline stocks fell by 6.3 million barrels in the week to 232.9 million barrels, the EIA said.
(Disclaimer: This article is for educatinal porpose only. Please consult your financial advisor before investing in stocks.)
