DBT Bureau
Pune, 30 Dec 2025
Copper prices corrected sharply, settling down by 3.55% at ₹1,232.6, as traders booked profits after recent record highs. The pullback came despite an otherwise supportive macro and structural backdrop. The US economy expanded at its fastest pace in two years during Q3, driven by strong consumer spending, exports, and industrial activity, all of which underpin copper-intensive sectors. Structural demand remains robust, supported by accelerating investments in electric vehicles, renewable energy, power grid upgrades, and AI-related infrastructure. Supply-side constraints persist following years of underinvestment, mine disruptions, and plans by China’s top smelters to cut output by over 10% in 2026 to address overcapacity and negative processing fees. On the data front, the International Copper Study Group reported a refined copper surplus of about 122,000 tonnes during the first ten months of 2025, even as apparent refined usage rose 5.5%, highlighting resilient demand. China’s copper imports declined for a second straight month in November, falling 2.51% to 427,000 tonnes as elevated prices curbed buying interest. Meanwhile, inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses jumped 16.6% week-on-week, while rising Yangshan premiums, which reached $55 per tonne, point to tighter availability of imported material. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 5.1% at 12,410 as prices fell 45.35. Support is seen at ₹1,158.1, below which prices may test ₹1,083.6. Resistance stands near ₹1,350, and a breakout could extend gains toward ₹1,467.4.
Market analysis:
- Copper trading range for the day is ₹1083.6- ₹1467.4.
- Copper dropped on profit booking from record highs amid tight supply and robust US economic growth underpinned prices.
- China’s top smelters planning over a 10% output reduction in 2026 to address overcapacity.
- Copper inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 16.6%.
Aluminium prices corrected sharply, settling lower by 3.57% at ₹290.2, as near-term sentiment was weighed down by rising inventories and steady output data. Inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange increased 6.6% week-on-week as of December 19, highlighting easing immediate tightness in the Chinese market. On the supply front, global primary aluminium output in November edged up 0.5% year-on-year to 6.086 million tonnes, according to the International Aluminium Institute. In China, aluminium production rose 2.5% year-on-year to 3.79 million tonnes in November, while cumulative output for the first eleven months climbed 2.5% to 41.17 million tonnes, reinforcing the view of resilient domestic supply. However, the downside remains capped by strengthening global supply-side concerns. LME aluminium prices moved close to their highest levels in over three years amid growing worries over constrained availability. China reiterated its commitment to preventing overcapacity, as production is set to breach the 45 million tonne cap this year, prompting smelters to restrain output growth in 2026. This policy shift has already reduced exports, which fell 9.2% year-on-year in November. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest declining 0.75% to 4,493 alongside a price fall of 10.75. Support is placed at ₹281.9, below which prices may test ₹273.4. Resistance is seen at ₹307, and a sustained move above could push prices toward ₹323.6.
Market analysis:
- Aluminium trading range for the day is ₹273.4- ₹323.6.
- Aluminium prices dropped as inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange rose 6.6%.
- Global aluminium output rises 0.5% year on year in November – IAI
- However, moves by Chinese smelters to build new plants in Indonesia continued to face troubles amid higher energy costs and local regulations risks.
Zinc prices corrected lower, settling down by 2.78% at ₹304.25, pressured by improving supply data from China and renewed concerns over domestic demand. China’s zinc output in November rose 13.3% year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons, according to National Bureau of Statistics data, extending the strong expansion seen in recent months, although the growth pace moderated from October’s 17.3%. Sentiment was further weighed down by weak Chinese macro indicators, with factory output and retail sales growth slowing in November, alongside a deterioration in property investment and property sales by floor area, reinforcing demand-side caution. However, downside appears limited by emerging supply risks and inventory tightness. Several zinc mines in Central and Southwest China are scheduled for routine maintenance shutdowns, which are expected to reduce zinc concentrate availability, including an estimated 700 metric tons of metal content loss in December. Zinc concentrate production is also projected to decline on a month-on-month basis. Reflecting these constraints, zinc inventories in Shanghai Futures Exchange warehouses fell 4.4% week-on-week. ILZSG data showed the global zinc market deficit narrowed to 600 tons in October, while the refined market posted a surplus of 76,000 tons in the first ten months of 2025. Technically, the market is under fresh selling, with open interest rising 5.58% to 5,295 as prices fell 8.7. Support is seen at ₹297.4, below which prices may test ₹290.6. Resistance stands at ₹316.6, and a move above could open the way toward ₹329.
Market analysis:
- Zinc trading range for the day is ₹290.6-₹329.
- Zinc dropped as China’s zinc output in November rose 13.3 percent year-on-year to 654,000 metric tons.
- Pressure also seen dragged down by revived demand concerns triggered by a raft of remaining weak data in China.
- Zinc mine in Central China is planning a routine maintenance shutdown, resulting in fewer production days.
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
