DBT Bureau
Pune, 22 August 2026
India’s sugar prices have risen sharply in recent weeks amid lower-than-expected domestic production and tightening global sugar supplies.
Domestic sugar prices increased from ₹48.18 per kg on July 20, 2026, to ₹55.70 per kg on August 20, 2026, marking a rise of nearly 16% in one month. Sugar production in the current season is now estimated at around 306 LMT, below the initial estimate of approximately 343 LMT, due to Red Rot and Top Borer diseases in sugarcane and waterlogging caused by excess rainfall.
Despite lower production, India has adequate stocks to meet domestic demand until the new crushing season begins in October.
Global Sugar Deficit Supports Prices
The tightening supply situation is also visible in international markets. The global sugar deficit for 2026-27 is estimated at around 33 LMT, while weather-related concerns have added to supply uncertainty.
International sugar prices rose from $474 per tonne on June 30 to $552 per tonne on August 20, 2026, an increase of more than 16% in less than two months.
US Sugar Supply Rises, but Crop Risks Remain
The latest US sugar outlook points to higher supplies, although prices are likely to remain supported by production risks and firm import demand.
For 2025/26, total US sugar supply is projected at 14.476 million STRV, an increase of 218,816 STRV, driven by higher domestic production and imports. Beet sugar production is estimated at 5.068 million STRV, while imports rise to 2.843 million STRV.
US ending stocks are projected at 1.904 million STRV, with the stocks-to-use ratio at 15.15%.
For 2026/27, US sugar supply is forecast to increase by another 168,518 STRV, as higher beginning stocks and imports offset lower domestic production. Beet sugar output is projected at 4.791 million STRV, while Louisiana cane sugar production is raised to 2.266 million STRV.
Florida remains a key production risk. Sugarcane output has been reduced amid mealy bug infestation and earlier freeze damage, with Florida sugarcane production forecast at 16.598 million tons, down from 17.573 million tons last year.
US ending stocks for 2026/27 are projected at 1.865 million STRV, with the stocks-to-use ratio rising to 14.84%.
Mexico Adds to Global Supply
Mexico’s 2025/26 sugar production is estimated at 5.325 million MT, higher than previous estimates. Ending stocks are projected at 1.259 million MT, while 2026/27 exports have also been increased.
Higher US and Mexican supplies could limit the upside in international sugar prices. However, crop damage in Florida, strong specialty sugar imports and the broader global supply deficit could continue to provide support.
Sugar Price Outlook
The combination of lower Indian production, a projected global deficit and weather-related crop risks in major producing regions is keeping the sugar market firm. While higher US and Mexican supplies could moderate the rally, continued supply concerns suggest that sugar prices may remain elevated in the near term.
