DBT Bureau
Pune, 11 Dec 2025
Silver extended its record-setting rally, rising 0.36% to ₹188,735 as expectations of an imminent 25 bps Federal Reserve rate cut converged with a pronounced physical-market squeeze. Prices surged to new all-time highs amid exceptionally tight inventories, strong ETF inflows, and a structural market deficit. Low visible exchange stocks, constrained spot liquidity, and persistent draws across major warehouses underscored deepening supply stress. Renewed accumulation by silver-backed ETFs added further momentum, while futures pricing continued to support a favorable real-rate environment for precious metals despite mixed U.S. labor signals. Industrial demand remains a dominant bullish force, with solar PV, electric vehicles, and electronics driving consumption to unprecedented levels. Meanwhile, mine supply has repeatedly lagged, reinforcing the deficit narrative. A new layer of risk emerged from China, where SHFE-linked inventories fell to their lowest since 2015 and Shanghai Gold Exchange volumes plunged to nine-year lows. China’s exports surged to a record 660 tons in October, with a significant portion diverted to London to ease the squeeze. Despite these flows, global liquidity concerns persist, with elevated borrowing costs in London and ongoing debate around potential U.S. tariffs after silver’s inclusion in the U.S. critical minerals list. Technically, the market is experiencing short covering, with open interest dropping 4.34% to 12,273 while prices advanced by 671 rupees. Immediate support is at ₹186,760, with further downside risk toward ₹184,780. Resistance is placed at ₹191,260, and a breakout above this could propel prices toward ₹193,780.
Market Analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹184780- ₹193780.
- Silver hits ₹1,91,800 mark for the first time ever driven by a market deficit and increasing demand for the metal.
- Support seen amid low visible exchange inventories, renewed ETF accumulation, and market deficit this year.
- Silver held in London vaults totalled 27,187 at the end of November, a 3.5% increase from the previous month – LBMA
Crude oil prices eased marginally, slipping 0.08% to ₹5242 as markets monitored developments in Russia–Ukraine peace efforts and awaited the U.S. Federal Reserve’s interest rate decision. The focus now turns to upcoming IEA and OPEC reports for firmer market direction. U.S. output projections continue to weigh on sentiment, with production expected to reach a record 13.6 million bpd this year, adding to already elevated global supply. API data showed a 4.8-million-barrel draw in crude inventories, although sharp builds in gasoline and distillates highlighted softening product demand. China’s crude imports offered a constructive demand signal, rising 4.88% year-on-year in November to 12.38 million bpd, the highest daily intake since August 2023. Meanwhile, EIA data showed a 1.812-million-barrel U.S. crude draw, undershooting expectations, while Cushing stocks rose after several weeks of declines. The EIA also projected higher U.S. output this year and only a marginal decline next year, reinforcing the outlook for persistent oversupply. Global supply is now forecast to average 106 million bpd in 2025, outpacing expected consumption of 104.1 million bpd. The IEA further raised its supply growth estimates, signalling a deeper surplus in 2026 as production expands faster than demand. Technically, the market is under long liquidation, with open interest down 0.7% to 11,780 as prices slipped by 4 rupees. Crude oil finds immediate support at ₹5196, below which ₹5149 may be tested, while resistance is placed at ₹5290, with a breakout likely to open the path toward ₹5337.
Market Analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹5149- ₹5337.
- Crude oil dropped as investors watched for progress in Russia-Ukraine peace talks and awaited a decision on U.S. interest rates.
- US energy officials projected that domestic oil output will rise to a record 13.6 million barrels per day this year.
- API data showed a 4.8-million-barrel decline in US crude inventories last week, while gasoline and distillate stockpiles rose sharply.
Gold edged lower by 0.24% to settle at ₹129,796 as markets digested the Federal Reserve’s 25 bps rate cut, which brought the funds rate to 3.5%–3.75%, the lowest since 2022. However, the Fed’s guidance signaled a cautious road ahead, with policymakers maintaining projections for only one rate cut in 2026 and three members dissenting in favor of no reduction. Fresh U.S. data reinforced economic resilience, as job openings continued to outperform expectations and ADP figures showed a rebound in private-sector hiring, complicating the Fed’s easing trajectory. Despite the pullback, gold remains supported by solid official-sector demand. China increased its reserves for the 13th consecutive month to 74.12 million troy ounces, while global central banks added a net 53 tonnes in October, led by Poland and Brazil. Year-to-date purchases reached 254 tonnes. ETF appetite also stayed firm, with global gold ETFs posting a sixth straight month of inflows totaling USD 5.2 billion in November. Physical markets were subdued as record-high prices weighed on demand. Indian buyers stepped back, widening dealer discounts to USD 22 per ounce, while China saw mixed premiums and discounts amid volatility. Technically, the market is under fresh selling pressure, evidenced by a 2.54% rise in open interest to 13,744, alongside a decline of 311 rupees. Gold has immediate support at ₹129,390, with a break exposing ₹128,990, while resistance stands at ₹130,345, and a move above this could open the way toward ₹130,900.
Market Analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹128990- ₹130900.
- Gold remained in range as markets anticipated a Federal Reserve interest-rate cut.
- The Federal Reserve lowered the funds rate by 25bps to 3.5%–3.75%, marking the lowest level since 2022
- Indonesia to impose gold export duties starting December 23
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
