DBT Bureau
Pune, 3 Dec 2025
Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research released its latest report, outlining the expected trading ranges for both gold and silver. The report also emphasizes key market drivers influencing price movements across global precious-metal markets.
Gold prices retreated by 0.68% to ₹1,29,759, as traders booked profits after the metal touched a six-week high. The correction came amid strong expectations of a 25 bps U.S. Fed rate cut next week, with markets pricing in an 88% probability. Weak U.S. macro data, including a ninth consecutive month of contraction in the manufacturing sector, has reinforced the likelihood of policy easing. Investors now await the ADP employment report and the delayed September PCE inflation data for further direction. Despite the pullback, gold has gained almost every month this year and is on track for its best annual performance since 1979, supported by resilient central-bank buying and robust ETF inflows. Physical demand across Asian hubs remained subdued as high prices weighed on retail purchases. In India, despite the wedding season, dealers offered discounts of up to $18/oz, slightly lower than last week. China saw uneven premiums ranging from +$1.40 to discounts of -$16, further pressured by Beijing’s removal of the VAT exemption on gold purchases. Premiums in Singapore and Hong Kong stayed modest at up to $2.50 and $1.80 respectively. Global demand rose 3% YoY in Q3 to 1,313 tons, the highest on record, driven by a 17% surge in bar and coin demand and a 134% jump in ETF inflows. Technically, gold is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest down 0.75% to 13,305. Support lies at ₹1,28,910, with further downside toward ₹1,28,055, while resistance is at ₹1,30,710, and a breakout could lift prices to ₹1,31,655.
Market Analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹128055 – ₹131655.
- Gold fell as investors took profits after prices reached a six-week peak, amid mounting expectations of a US interest rate cut next week.
- Traders currently assign an 88% probability to a 25bps reduction at the Fed’s upcoming meeting.
- US manufacturing sector contracted for the ninth consecutive month in November, increasing pressure on the Fed to ease policy.
Silver prices eased by 0.24% to ₹1,81,601, as traders booked profits after the metal hit a record high. The correction came following a six-session rally that pushed silver prices up more than 100% in 2025, reflecting strong bullish momentum. Market sentiment, however, remains broadly supportive due to expectations of a 25 bps U.S. Fed rate cut, with traders assigning an 88% probability. A string of weak U.S. macro indicators, including the ninth consecutive month of contraction in manufacturing, has strengthened the case for monetary easing. On the physical front, global supply tightness continues to underpin prices. Chinese silver stockpiles have dropped to their lowest levels since 2015, while trading volumes on the Shanghai Gold Exchange have slumped to a nine-year low. China exported a record 660 tons of silver in October, much of which was redirected to London to ease the liquidity squeeze that had pushed borrowing rates sharply higher. London vault holdings rose 6.8% to 26,255 tons, boosted by inflows of 1,674 tons from China and the U.S. Still, liquidity concerns persist, as borrowing costs remain historically elevated. Meanwhile, 1,568 tons of silver have been withdrawn from Comex warehouses since early October, signaling ongoing tightness despite higher year-on-year inventories. Technically, silver is witnessing long liquidation with open interest down 6.87% to 13,736. Immediate support lies at ₹1,78,420, with deeper downside toward ₹1,75,240, while resistance is placed at ₹1,83,730, and a breakout could lift prices to ₹1,85,860.
Market Analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹175240 – ₹185860.
- Silver dropped as investors took profits following a record high.
- However downside seen limited amid tight physical supply, strong industrial demand, and expectations of a US interest rate cut.
- Markets are now pricing in an 88% chance of a 25bps rate cut at the Fed’s upcoming meeting
