DBT Bureau
Pune, 12 June 2026
Goldman Sachs has lowered its average Brent crude oil price forecast for 2027 to $80 per barrel, citing stronger global supply growth and persistent demand weakness. The bank expects rising production from the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela, and the UAE to outweigh demand growth, particularly as China undergoes structural changes in energy consumption. Despite the downgrade, Goldman maintains its expectation of Brent averaging $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026 due to ongoing geopolitical risks surrounding the Strait of Hormuz. The bank also highlighted significant price volatility risks, with potential outcomes ranging from $60 to $140 per barrel depending on supply disruptions.
Key Highlights
- Goldman Sachs lowered its 2027 average Brent crude forecast to $80 per barrel.
- Rising output from major producers is expected to create a more comfortable supply balance.
- Weak demand growth, especially from China, remains a major bearish factor.
- Goldman still expects Brent to average $90 per barrel in Q4 2026 amid Hormuz-related risks.
- Brent could range between $60 and $140 per barrel depending on future supply disruptions.
Crude oil prices remain highly sensitive to developments in the Middle East, with market participants closely monitoring the status of exports through the Strait of Hormuz. Despite ongoing geopolitical uncertainty, Goldman Sachs has revised its long-term outlook, lowering its average Brent crude forecast for 2027 to $80 per barrel from previous expectations. The bank believes that expanding global supply and softer demand growth will gradually ease market tightness over the coming years.
Supporting the more moderate price outlook is a projected increase in production from key oil-producing nations, including the United States, Brazil, Guyana, Venezuela, and the UAE. Goldman Sachs noted that these additional barrels are likely to offset a significant portion of supply risks while improving overall market availability. At the same time, structural changes in China’s economy and energy consumption patterns continue to limit the pace of global oil demand growth.
However, the investment bank continues to forecast Brent crude averaging around $90 per barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026. Goldman expects Gulf oil exports to normalize by late August, later than previously anticipated, while ongoing shipping disruptions and reduced inventories continue to support prices in the near term. The bank estimates that the global supply deficit has been partially cushioned by weaker demand and existing surplus capacity.
Looking ahead, Goldman highlighted substantial uncertainty surrounding the oil market. In an adverse scenario where export disruptions persist longer than expected, Brent could average above $110 per barrel in late 2026. A more severe scenario involving prolonged Hormuz disruptions could push prices toward $140 per barrel in 2027. Conversely, faster supply normalization and weaker demand could drive Brent down to around $70 in late 2026 and $60 in 2027.
While stronger global supply growth is expected to cap long-term oil prices, geopolitical risks in the Middle East continue to create significant upside and downside uncertainty for the crude market.
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