DBT Bureau
Pune, 17 August 2026
Gold settled 0.68% higher at ₹154,506, supported by a weaker US dollar and softer expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike after largely in-line US inflation data. US CPI inflation eased to 3.4% year-on-year in July from 3.5% in June, marking the second consecutive month of cooling annual inflation, while an unexpected decline in July nonfarm payrolls further reduced expectations of tighter monetary policy. Markets now price a 31% probability of a September rate hike, down sharply from around 55% last week, with the Fed widely expected to maintain the 3.50%-3.75% policy-rate range. However, Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee highlighted persistent inflation concerns, potentially limiting gold’s upside. Geopolitical uncertainty remains elevated as the US and Iran remain deadlocked over efforts to end their five-month-old war, while tensions surrounding the Strait of Hormuz continue to provide a safe-haven backdrop. Physical demand in Asia remained subdued as elevated bullion prices discouraged consumption. Indian gold discounts widened to as much as $62 per ounce, the highest in more than two months, while China traded from a $2 discount to a $5 premium. India’s net gold imports declined 23% year-on-year to 98.1 tonnes in Q2 2026, while domestic gold demand fell 6% to 131.4 tonnes. Globally, Q2 gold demand remained steady at 1,268.9 tonnes as central-bank purchases surged to 289 tonnes, five times Q1 levels, offsetting 45 tonnes of ETF outflows. London vault holdings increased 0.77% month-on-month to 9,464 tonnes, valued at approximately $1.2 trillion. Technically, fresh buying emerged as open interest increased 0.33% to 9,798 contracts alongside a ₹1,040 price gain. Gold has support at ₹152,640, with a break below potentially opening ₹150,770, while resistance is placed at ₹155,665; sustained movement above this level could target ₹156,820.
Market analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹150770-₹156820.
- Gold advanced buoyed by a weaker dollar after in-line U.S. inflation readings tipped the scales in favor of an interest rate hold.
- Fed’s Barkin said a rate hike is still an ‘open question.’
- Traders scale back Sept. rate hike bets to 31% – CME FedWatch
Silver settled 0.20% higher at ₹235,924, supported by a weaker US dollar as recent economic data reduced expectations of a Federal Reserve rate hike in September. US retail sales fell 0.6% month-on-month in July, sharply missing expectations of a 0.1% rise and reversing June’s 0.2% gain, while the retail sales control group also unexpectedly declined, raising concerns over consumer resilience. The University of Michigan consumer sentiment index dropped to 51 in early August from 55.2 in July, below expectations of 54.5, while initial unemployment claims increased by 9,000 to 209,000 in the first week of August, exceeding market expectations of 202,000. Softer producer and consumer inflation further reduced the urgency for monetary tightening, supporting precious metals. On the physical market side, Chinese imports of silver-bearing ores surged 62.5% year-on-year in June to 219,000 tonnes. London vault holdings increased 1.7% month-on-month to 28,082 tonnes at end-June, valued at approximately $53.1 billion. However, the global silver market remains structurally tight and is heading for a sixth consecutive annual deficit. The deficit is forecast to widen to 46.3 million ounces in 2026 from 40.3 million ounces in 2025, despite total demand expected to decline 2%. Industrial silver fabrication is projected to fall 3% to a four-year low, while coin and bar demand is expected to rise 18%, supported by stronger US buying. Global supply is forecast to decline 2% as producer hedging normalises. Since 2021, approximately 762 million ounces have been drawn from stocks, maintaining the risk of renewed liquidity tightness. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined 0.60% to 10,752 contracts while prices gained ₹477. Silver has support at ₹232,380, and a break below this level could expose ₹228,830. Resistance is placed at ₹238,650, while a sustained move above this level could trigger further gains towards ₹241,370.
Market analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹228830-₹241370.
- Silver rose as US dollar index fell as the latest economic data limited positions on a Federal Reserve rate hike.
- The US PPI inflation was unchanged in July, reinforcing bets the Fed will refrain from hiking interest rates next month.
- Fed’s Hammack reiterates the need to raise rates
Crude oil settled 0.63% higher at ₹7,870, supported by heightened geopolitical risks after the United States threatened to maintain an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, raising concerns over potential disruptions to crude supplies from the Middle East. Ceasefire talks between the United States and Iran remain stalled, increasing uncertainty around regional supply flows and providing a floor to prices despite weakening demand expectations. OPEC lowered its 2026 global oil demand growth forecast to 580,000 barrels per day, marking the fourth consecutive downward revision, while it raised its demand growth forecast for 2027. In contrast, the International Energy Agency expects global oil consumption to contract by 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, compared with its previous forecast of a 1 million barrels per day decline, citing restricted fuel supplies and higher prices caused by the US-Israeli war on Iran. US inventory data remained bearish, with crude stocks rising sharply by 17.4 million barrels to 424.4 million barrels in the week ended August 7, against market expectations for a 1.4 million-barrel draw. Cushing crude inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels, while refinery crude runs rose 26,000 barrels per day and refinery utilization declined 0.3 percentage points. Gasoline inventories declined by 1 million barrels to 208.7 million barrels, while distillate stocks fell marginally by 10,000 barrels to 107.1 million barrels. Net US crude imports increased by 1.77 million barrels per day, adding further pressure to the inventory balance. Technically, the market is under short covering as open interest declined sharply by 25.14% to 5,998 contracts while prices gained ₹49. Crude oil has support at ₹7,750, and a break below this level could expose ₹7,631. On the upside, resistance is placed at ₹7,956, while a sustained move above this level could lead prices towards ₹8,043.
Market analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹7631-₹8043.
- Crude oil gains as U.S. threatened an indefinite naval blockade of Iran, raising concerns about disruptions to crude supplies.
- OPEC lowered its world oil demand growth forecast for 2026 to 580,000 barrels per day in its monthly oil market report.
- The International Energy Agency also warned of a deeper global supply deficit, forecasting the widest shortfall in 2026 in five years.
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Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
