DBT Bureau
Pune, 23 Dec 2025
Gold prices settled sharply higher, gaining 1.9% to close at ₹136,744, after touching a record high, driven by heightened geopolitical tensions and expectations of eventual Federal Reserve rate cuts. The rally has been further reinforced by sustained investment demand, with gold-backed ETFs recording five consecutive weeks of inflows. However, near-term dovish expectations remain muted, as the CME FedWatch Tool shows only a 22.5% probability of a 25 bps rate cut in the January meeting. US inflation data for November showed cooling pressures, with headline CPI easing to 2.7% YoY and core CPI declining to 2.6%, though Fed officials, including Cleveland Fed President Beth Hammack, cautioned against overinterpreting the data due to distortions from the government shutdown. Geopolitical risks continued to underpin safe-haven demand, following fresh developments involving US actions near Venezuela and Ukraine’s strike on a Russian tanker. On the physical front, elevated prices dampened retail demand in key Asian markets, with discounts widening in India and China, while premiums remained modest in Singapore and Hong Kong. Central bank buying stayed robust, led by China’s thirteenth consecutive monthly addition and strong purchases from Poland and Brazil. ETF assets under management hit fresh records, reflecting sustained investor interest. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining by 1% to 14,885 while prices rose 2,548. Gold has immediate support at ₹135,490; a break below could test ₹134,235. Resistance is seen at ₹137,410, with a move above opening the path toward ₹138,075.
Market Analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹134235- ₹138075.
- Gold rose to a record high driven by geopolitical tensions and expectations for Federal Reserve rate cuts.
- The rally is supported by five straight weeks of inflows into gold-backed ETFs.
- The probability of the Fed reducing interest rates by 25 basis points (bps) to 3.25%-3.50% in the January meeting is 22.5%.
Silver prices settled sharply higher, gaining 2.13% to close at ₹212,872 after scaling a fresh record high, supported by expectations of further Federal Reserve rate cuts and intensifying geopolitical risks. The metal has surged over 140% amid a structurally tight supply environment, robust industrial consumption, and strong investment demand. ETF inflows and sustained retail buying continue to reinforce expectations of a persistent market deficit, with forecasts pointing to a fifth consecutive annual shortfall of around 125 million ounces in 2025, taking cumulative deficits since 2021 close to 800 million ounces. Industrial demand remains a key driver, led by rapid growth in solar energy, electric vehicles, and data center infrastructure. Supply-side constraints persist as global mine production and recycling have remained largely stagnant for over a decade. Tight physical conditions are evident in rising lease rates and borrowing costs in London, indicating genuine delivery stress. China’s announcement of strict silver export controls effective 2026 has further fueled near-term demand, while Chinese inventories have fallen to decade lows following record exports exceeding 660 tonnes in October. Although LBMA data showed a 3.5% rise in London vault silver holdings in November, liquidity concerns remain elevated. From a technical perspective, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 4.54% to 12,688 as prices advanced 4,433. Silver has support at 210,035; a break below could test ₹207,200. Resistance is placed at ₹215,145, and a sustained move above may open the path toward ₹217,420.
Market Analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹207200- ₹217420.
- Silver climbed reaching a new record, driven by expectations of further Fed rate cuts and escalating geopolitical tensions
- Silver rallied over 140% by an ongoing supply deficit, growing industrial needs and strong investment demand.
- Fed’s Miran reiterated that the U.S. central bank should cut interest rates because inflation has cooled.
Crude oil prices settled higher by 2.31% at ₹5,223, supported by heightened geopolitical risks after the U.S. intercepted an oil tanker near Venezuela and ongoing tensions in the Russia–Ukraine conflict, both of which revived concerns over potential supply disruptions. Despite these developments, the broader market remains weighed by expectations of ample supply from the U.S. and OPEC+, which have largely capped prices and kept Brent futures near the $65 per barrel mark in the medium term. The U.S. Energy Information Administration raised its 2025 crude production forecast to a record 13.61 million barrels per day, reinforcing concerns of a global supply overhang, even as it marginally lowered its 2026 outlook. The International Energy Agency also projected a sizable surplus next year, though it trimmed its estimate to 3.84 million bpd on slightly stronger demand growth and marginally lower supply. On the inventory front, U.S. crude stocks fell by 1.274 million barrels, exceeding expectations, with a notable draw at the Cushing hub. However, sharp builds in gasoline and distillate inventories highlighted weaker downstream demand. OPEC+ output edged higher in November, while demand projections for 2026 were maintained, reflecting confidence in global economic stability. From a technical perspective, the market witnessed short covering, with open interest declining 9.86% to 19,995 as prices rose 118. Crude oil has support at 5,142, with a break below exposing ₹5,062. Resistance stands at ₹5,274, and a move above could push prices toward ₹5,326.
Market Analysis:
- Crudeoil trading range for the day is ₹5062- ₹5326.
- Crude oil rises after US intercepts tanker off Venezuela, Russia-Ukraine tensions persist.
- US intercepts Venezuelan oil tanker, raising supply disruption fears
- Trump administration’s hardline approach sparked rebound in crude prices
