DBT Bureau
Pune, 15 Dec 2025
Gold prices settled higher by 0.87% at ₹133,622, after briefly scaling a fresh all-time high near ₹135,000, supported by expectations of further US monetary easing. Sentiment improved as fresh signs of cooling in the US labor market strengthened the case for future rate cuts. Weekly jobless claims for December 6 rose more than expected, marking the highest level in over two months. This followed the Federal Reserve’s third 25 bps rate cut of the year and a notably less hawkish stance. Chair Jerome Powell indicated that additional rate hikes are effectively off the table, prompting markets to price in two rate cuts in 2026, despite the Fed’s projections signaling only one. Adding to support, the Fed announced plans to purchase around USD 40 billion in short-term Treasury bills to ease money market strains, a move expected to cap short-term yields and remain favorable for precious metals. Central bank demand stayed robust, with the People’s Bank of China increasing gold reserves for the 13th consecutive month to about 74.12 million troy ounces. Global central banks added a net 53 tonnes in October, while gold ETFs recorded their sixth straight month of inflows, led by strong buying from Asia. On the physical front, demand was mixed. Gold discounts widened in India amid record prices, while Chinese demand remained muted due to volatility. Technically, the market is witnessing fresh buying interest, with open interest rising 2.95% to 13,646 alongside a price gain of 1,153. Gold has support at ₹132,175; a break below could test ₹130,730. Resistance is seen at ₹135,165, and a sustained move above may open the door toward ₹136,710.
Market Analysis:
- Gold trading range for the day is ₹130730-₹136710.
- Gold climbed ₹135000 to all time high supported by expectations of more interest rate cuts next year after Fed pushed back against hawkish market bets.
- Jobless claims rose more than expected, reaching their highest level in over two months.
- Fed delivered its third 25 bps cut of the year and adopted a less hawkish tone than markets anticipated.
Silver settled lower by 3.06% at ₹192,851, retreating on profit booking after touching an all-time high near 200,000 earlier in the session. The sharp correction came even as the broader fundamental backdrop remains constructive. Earlier in the week, silver was supported by the US Federal Reserve’s quarter-point rate cut and a less hawkish policy outlook. Fed Chair Jerome Powell reiterated that further rate hikes are unlikely, with projections pointing to one additional cut next year and another in 2027, which continues to underpin precious metals. Investment demand stayed strong, with robust ETF inflows and solid retail buying reinforcing expectations of a structural market deficit in the coming year. At the same time, silver mine production and recycling have remained largely flat for more than a decade, while the global supply deficit is forecast to extend into a fifth consecutive year. The shortfall is estimated at around 125 million ounces in 2025, taking the cumulative deficit since 2021 close to 800 million ounces. Physical market tightness persists, reflected in elevated lease rates in London and sharply declining inventories in China. Chinese stockpiles have fallen to their lowest level in a decade, while exports surged to a record 660 tonnes in October. Technically, the market is witnessing long liquidation, with open interest falling 14.11% to 10,982 alongside a price drop of 6,091. Silver has support at ₹188,085; a break below may test ₹183,310. Resistance is seen at ₹199,625, and a move above could push prices toward ₹206,390.
Market Analysis:
- Silver trading range for the day is ₹183310- ₹206390.
- Silver dropped on profit booking as Federal Reserve officials remain divided about future monetary policy meetings.
- Earlier in the day, prices crossed all-time ₹2,00,000 as the latest Fed rate cut coincided with tightening physical market conditions.
- Robust ETF buying and strong retail demand also supported silver, reinforcing forecasts of a market deficit next year.
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
