DBT Bureau
Pune, 1 August 2026
Aluminum production outside China declined 6.7% year-on-year in July 2026 due to lower operating rates at Middle Eastern smelters. However, average daily production increased 1.6% month-on-month as production resumed in the Middle East and Iceland, while capacity ramp-ups continued in Indonesia, Vietnam, India, Brazil, Norway, Spain, and Australia. Several producers, including Hydro, Alcoa, Rio Tinto, Vedanta Aluminum, EGA, and Magnitude 7 Metals, reported production restarts or expansion progress. Looking ahead, output outside China is expected to continue improving in the short term, although delays in new aluminum projects could limit the pace of future production growth.
Key Highlights
• Aluminum production outside China fell 6.7% YoY, while daily output rebounded 1.6% MoM in July.
• Hydro and Magnitude 7 Metals announced 75,000 mt/year capacity restarts scheduled by late 2026.
• EGA continued restoring Al Taweelah operations, with 89 of 1,262 pots back in production.
• Alcoa’s Q2 aluminum production rose 5% QoQ to 636,000 mt on global smelter restarts.
• Production ramp-ups in Indonesia, Vietnam, India, and the Middle East are expected to support August output.
Aluminum prices remained supported as improving production outside China was offset by ongoing supply constraints and slower annual output. Although total aluminum production outside China declined 6.7% year-on-year in July 2026 due to reduced operating rates at several Middle Eastern smelters, average daily production increased 1.6% month-on-month, reflecting a gradual recovery in global supply.
Supporting this trend, multiple aluminum producers announced capacity restarts and expansion progress during July. Hydro secured approval to restart 75,000 mt of capacity at the Slovalco smelter in Slovakia, with production expected to begin in the fourth quarter of 2026. Magnitude 7 Metals also confirmed plans to restart 75,000 mt/year of primary aluminum capacity at its Missouri smelter by the end of 2026. Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) continued restoring production at its Al Taweelah facility, with 89 out of 1,262 pots already back in operation.
Elsewhere, Vedanta Aluminum reported a 17% year-on-year increase in production at its Balco smelter, supported by expanded capacity. Rio Tinto highlighted continued capacity growth at its Kitimat, NZAS and AP60 operations, while Alcoa reported 636,000 tonnes of aluminum production in the second quarter, up 5% quarter-on-quarter, driven by restarts and production ramp-ups across Spain, Brazil, Norway and Australia.
Looking ahead, aluminum output outside China is expected to continue rising as Middle Eastern smelters progressively restore operations and newer projects in Indonesia, Vietnam and India increase production. However, reports of slower-than-expected construction progress at several aluminum projects could moderate future supply growth, making upcoming production updates from major smelters a key focus for the market.
Global aluminum supply is gradually improving through production restarts and capacity expansions, though project delays and geopolitical uncertainties could continue influencing market sentiment and prices.
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
