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Data Story: Will Aluminium price sustain current rally amid rising Middle East conflict?

in Data Story
Reading Time: 2 mins read
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Data Story: LME Aluminium price remains stable despite tariff concerns

Debasis Mohapatra

Bengaluru, 21 June 2025

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Aluminium prices at London Metal Exchanges have jumped close to $75 per tonne since the first week of June 2025. As Israel-Iran conflict rages with the entry of US, market is anticipating a sharp jump in crude oil prices.

Crude oil plays an important role in aluminium smelting. According to experts, more than 40% of the total cost of smelting could be energy. With oil pricing rising amid West Asian conflict, cost of production on alumina and aluminium is likely to rise.

Price Snapshot:

Futures contract (Date)LME Future Contract Price (3-month)
June 16,2025$2,506/tonne
June 17, 2025$2,530/tonne
June 18, 2025$2,544/ tonne
June 19, 2025$2,527/tonne
June 20, 2025$2,529.5/tonne

Factors to watch out for:

  1. If Iran and US come to an agreement without further escalation, then oil prices will cool down. This will pull down aluminium prices.
  2. Middle East contributes around 10% of global aluminium production. Any disruption to Strait of Hormuz will impact movement of material.
  3. The inventory level of aluminium remains low. If inventory level rises, prices may be pulled down.

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