DBT Bureau
Pune, 30 July 2026
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has revised its 2025-26 cotton crop estimates, raising cotton pressing by 3 lakh bales to 337 lakh bales while increasing domestic consumption by 10 lakh bales to 348 lakh bales. Cotton imports were sharply revised higher to 60 lakh bales, whereas exports were lowered to 15 lakh bales, reflecting tighter domestic availability. Total cotton supply is now estimated at 452.59 lakh bales, with closing stocks projected to rise to 89.59 lakh bales by September 2026. The revisions indicate stronger mill demand, higher import dependence, and comfortable year-end inventories despite lower export prospects.
Key Highlights
- CAI increased 2025-26 cotton pressing estimate by 3 lakh bales to 337 lakh bales.
- Domestic cotton consumption revised up by 10 lakh bales to 348 lakh bales.
- Cotton imports raised sharply to 60 lakh bales, up 13 lakh bales from earlier estimate.
- Cotton exports cut to 15 lakh bales, reflecting weaker overseas shipments and stronger domestic demand.
- Closing stocks projected at 89.59 lakh bales, 34 lakh bales higher than previous season.
Cotton prices remained supported amid expectations of stronger domestic mill demand and continued import requirements, although the outlook for higher closing stocks may limit any sharp upside. The latest Cotton Association of India (CAI) estimates highlight improving consumption trends despite a modest increase in domestic production, suggesting that demand continues to outpace local supply.
Supporting the market sentiment, CAI has increased its 2025-26 cotton pressing estimate by 3 lakh bales to 337 lakh bales of 170 kg each. Domestic consumption has also been revised higher by 10 lakh bales to 348 lakh bales, reflecting stronger demand from the textile industry. Consumption is now estimated to exceed domestic production, keeping import demand elevated.
On the trade front, CAI has significantly increased cotton import estimates by 13 lakh bales to 60 lakh bales for the current season, while export estimates have been reduced by 3 lakh bales to 15 lakh bales. By the end of June 2026, imports are estimated at 51 lakh bales, whereas exports stood at only 11.25 lakh bales, indicating a clear shift toward meeting domestic requirements.
The association estimates total cotton supply at 452.59 lakh bales for the 2025-26 season, comprising opening stocks, domestic production and imports. Available surplus is projected at 104.59 lakh bales, while closing stocks are expected to rise to 89.59 lakh bales by the end of September 2026, compared with 55.59 lakh bales a year earlier. The higher inventories provide a comfortable supply cushion despite stronger domestic consumption and lower export volumes.
Higher domestic consumption and increased imports are supporting cotton fundamentals, while rising closing stocks and reduced exports are likely to keep overall market sentiment balanced.
Source: Kedia Stocks & Commodities Research Pvt. Ltd.
