DBT Bureau
Pune, 23 June 2026
Commodity markets witnessed a sharp shift in sentiment as easing geopolitical tensions following the U.S.–Iran talks weighed on crude oil prices, while Dubai crude premiums slipped into discount territory amid expectations of increased global oil supply and weaker demand signals from China.
The following are the latest insights from Geojit Investments’ commodity market report, highlighting key developments across precious metals, energy, and base metals markets amid shifting geopolitical dynamics, central bank policy signals, and evolving global trade flows.
- Precious metals edged higher, recovering from last week’s decline, as renewed optimism surrounding the latest round of US–Iran talks held in Switzerland on Monday provided some relief to geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. However, hawkish signals from the US Federal Reserve along with firm Treasury yields, capped gains in bullion.
- Spot gold traded above USD 4200 per troy ounce, while spot silver traded around USD 66 per troy ounce.
- U.S. Federal Reserve kept interest rates unchanged within the 3.5%–3.75% range and indicated the possibility of a rate hike later this year, citing the growing concerns over inflation remaining above its 2% target.
- Crude oil prices declined following the conclusion of U.S.–Iran talks in Switzerland, where Tehran indicated it had obtained waivers allowing continued oil and petrochemical exports. This development eased concerns over potential supply disruptions, reducing fears of a tightening global oil market.
- Middle East crude markets weakened significantly following the U.S.–Iran agreement, which improved global supply expectations. Dubai’s premium to swaps fell to a 46 cent discount, the first contango since January, after reaching USD2.06 per barrel earlier in the week.
- The reopening of the Strait of Hormuz will flood the global oil market with millions of barrels currently stranded in the Middle East Gulf. Additionally, the removal of U.S. restrictions on Iranian crude could unlock around 72 million barrels held on tankers west of Chabahar, with volumes likely to grow further if broader sanctions relief is implemented by U.S.
- China’s May crude imports slumped 29% to their lowest levels in eight years. Imports dropped to 33.08 million tonnes, or 7.79 million barrels per day, the lowest level since February 2018.
- China’s copper imports declined 1.33% month-on-month to 446,000 tonnes, with January–May imports at 2.01 million tonnes, down 7% year-on-year.
- China’s aluminium exports rose 5.68% in May to 632,000 tonnes, driven by supply disruptions in the Gulf region linked to the Iran conflict. China’s unwrought aluminium and product exports climbed 5.68% in May to 632,000 metric tonnes.
