By Sadananda Mohapatra, Senior Business Journalist
The Lead Story : Coal Reclaims Throne
The global energy landscape shifted overnight following air strikes on Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG hub. This devastating attack wiped out approximately 17% of Qatar’s LNG capacity—destroying two critical processing trains and removing 12 to 13 million tonnes per annum (MTPA) of global supply for up to five years. Compounded by massive shipping disruptions in the vital Strait of Hormuz, this double shock has sent LNG spot prices skyrocketing from previous long-term rates of 9−12/MMBtu to a punishing 23−26+ per MMBtu.
For India, the fallout is severe and immediate. With natural gas practically unavailable or entirely unaffordable, coal has aggressively roared back into focus as India’s ultimate energy anchor. Stripped of their usual gas allocations, MSMEs, heavy industries, and small consumers are being heavily forced into using coal as a direct alternative fuel to keep their operations alive. To manage this urgent transition, the Ministry of Environment, Forest and Climate Change officially advised state governments to temporarily permit the use of coal and kerosene overlooking climate concerns for sometime.
This sudden, massive fuel-switching caused retail coal prices in the informal market to surge by approximately 50%. However, unlike the gas sector, India’s domestic coal infrastructure was prepared to act as a massive shock absorber. The nation currently boasts a record-breaking total coal buffer of approximately 210 million tonnes (MT) that is sufficient for 88 days.
Throughout March, domestic production has shattered historical records, with captive and commercial mines crossing a massive 200 MT milestone. To aggressively cool the surging informal market, Coal India Limited (CIL) scheduled 29 e-auctions to pump roughly 2.56 million tonnes of coal directly to struggling MSMEs to protect them from price volatility. Furthermore, thermal coal plants are currently operating at a grueling ~95% utilization rate to support a power grid facing 245 GW peak loads.
As the Middle East conflict proves the extreme fragility of imported gas, coal is no longer viewed as a phasing-out transition fuel. Instead, it is fundamentally back as the undisputed, long-term backbone of India’s energy and economic security.
IEX Approves Plans for India’s First Dedicated Coal Exchange
On March 18, 2026, the Indian Energy Exchange (IEX) board granted in-principle approval to explore establishing a dedicated Coal Exchange. The move aligns with the Ministry of Coal’s proposed “Coal Regulations 2025”. It aims to replace the current fragmented system of bilateral contracts and e-auctions with a transparent, regulated electronic marketplace. The Coal Controller’s Organisation (CCO) will regulate the exchange. The proposal promises better market discipline, transparency, and price discovery for the physical coal market. Markets reacted positively. IEX shares surged over 3% immediately after the announcement.
Power Exchange Swings from Brutal Deficits to Massive Surplus
The Day-Ahead Market (DAM) saw extreme volatility during March 13–20, 2026. The week opened with severe supply squeezes. On March 13 demand reached nearly 560,000 MWh against 319,984 MWh supply. Average Market Clearing Price hit ₹7,244.11 per MWh. Evening peaks locked at ₹10,000 per MWh (₹10 per unit). Generation rebounded mid-week. By March 20 supply hit 515,121 MWh against 359,946 MWh demand. Average price crashed to ₹3,491.62 per MWh. Afternoon solar peak drove prices as low as ₹1,546.79 per MWh (₹1.55 per unit). Exchange trade remains a small fraction of total power trade.
AI Forecast Shows Sustained Peak Demand Above 233 GW
GRID-India’s latest AI-generated week-ahead forecast for March 23–29, 2026, shows persistent grid pressure. Peak electricity demand is projected to stay above 233.8 GW throughout the workweek. It reaches a weekly high of 236,572 MW on Friday, March 27. Lower trendline load remains elevated between roughly 213.8 GW and 216.4 GW on weekdays. The grid will see only a slight weekend respite. Peak demand is projected to taper to 222,214 MW by Sunday, March 29.
About the Author:
Sadananda Mohapatra is a veteran business journalist with decades of experience covering India’s energy, industry, and economic landscape. With stints at reputed financial news publications like The Business Standard & NewsWire18, he reported extensively on India’s power sector, minerals policy, coal and energy regulation, and industrial developments — building a deep, ground-level understanding of the global energy economy. His work spans corporate affairs, infrastructure, and policy analysis, with a particular focus on eastern India’s resource-rich industrial corridor. He currently writes on the global energy landscape through his newsletter, The Joule’s Stack.
This article has been published with permission from the author, which appeared on Substack first.
