DBT Bureau
Pune, 11 Feb 2026
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has maintained India’s cotton pressing estimate for the 2025-26 season at 317 lakh bales, unchanged from its previous assessment. Consumption, imports and exports projections have also been retained, pointing to stable demand assumptions amid higher import inflows. With imports estimated above last year and domestic consumption slightly lower, total cotton supply is projected to rise sharply. As a result, surplus availability and closing stocks are expected to increase significantly by the end of the season, underscoring a well-supplied cotton market scenario.
Key Highlights
• CAI keeps 2025-26 cotton pressing estimate unchanged at 317 lakh bales
• Cotton consumption pegged lower than last year at 305 lakh bales
• Imports seen higher year-on-year, exports marginally lower
• Total cotton supply projected to rise sharply to 427.59 lakh bales
• Closing stocks expected to jump 47 lakh bales year-on-year
The Cotton Association of India (CAI) has maintained its cotton pressing estimate for the 2025-26 season at 317.00 lakh bales of 170 kg each, unchanged from its earlier projection. The estimate, based on inputs from upcountry associations and trade sources, carries a margin of plus or minus 3%, reflecting stable production expectations at this stage of the season.
CAI indicated that it will continue to closely monitor pressing trends in the coming months and revise estimates if required. So far, the outlook suggests steady arrivals and no major supply disruptions.
On the demand side, India’s total cotton consumption for the 2025-26 season, up to September 30, 2026, has also been retained at 305.00 lakh bales, lower than last year’s consumption of 314.00 lakh bales. Consumption up to January 31, 2026, is estimated at 104.00 lakh bales, indicating moderate mill demand so far.
Imports remain a key feature of the current season. CAI has kept its cotton import estimate unchanged at 50.00 lakh bales, significantly higher than the 41.00 lakh bales imported last year. By the end of January 2026, around 35.00 lakh bales are estimated to have already arrived at Indian ports, highlighting strong reliance on overseas supplies. Meanwhile, exports are projected at 15.00 lakh bales, lower than last season’s 18.00 lakh bales, with about 6.00 lakh bales shipped so far.
Total cotton supply for the season is pegged at 427.59 lakh bales, sharply higher than last year. This includes opening stocks, current season pressing, and imports, leading to a substantially higher surplus outlook.
With higher imports, stable production, and softer consumption growth, India’s cotton balance for 2025-26 points to rising surplus and significantly higher closing stocks by season-end.
